Our chart below shows the forecast, expressed in terms of the inflation-adjusted chained U.S. dollars of 2005:
Going by our preferred Modified Limo forecasting technique, we see a 50% probability that real GDP in 2012-Q2 will be over $13,572.5 billion, and a 50% probability that it will be under that level.
We'll also give the following odds that it will be between the indicated values (again, in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars):
- A 68.2% probability of being between $13,367.7 billion and $13,649.9 billion.
- A 95.0% probability of being between $13,226.6 billion and $13,790.9 billion.
- A 99.7% probability of being between $13,085.5 billion and $13,932.0 billion.
Looking at our forecast for 2012-Q1 from three months ago, where we had forecast that GDP in the first quarter of 2012 would be finalized at or near a mid-range value of $13,508.8 billion in terms of 2005 U.S. dollars, we were off the BEA's third (and for now, final) estimate of $13,491.4 billion by 0.13%.