Political  Calculations

The advance GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2011 was released on Friday, 27 January 2012, with that quarter's inflation-adjusted GDP figure being reported at $13,422.4 billion, in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars.

That value is just 0.29% higher than what we would forecast using our Modified Limo method for projecting the value of GDP in the next quarter, using the final value of $13,331.6 billion for the third quarter of 2011.

On a side note, since Political Calculations was on our annual year-end hiatus when that final value for 2011-Q3 GDP was reported, and because we had never updated our previous public projection of $13,393.3 billion, the advance figure for 2011-Q4 real GDP is just 0.21% higher than our last posted forecast.

Real GDP vs Climbing Limo Forecast vs Modified Limo Forecast, 2003 - Present (as of 27 January 2012) 

In any case, we anticipate that this figure will be revised lower by the time the BEA's third estimate for 2011-Q4's GDP is recorded.

Looking forward and assuming that the forecast given our Modified Limo methods follows a normal distribution with respect to the trajectory of real GDP, we currently anticipate the following for GDP in the first quarter of 2012, in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars:

  • A 68.2% probability of falling between $13,357.5 billion and $13,640.0 billion.
  • A 95.0% probability of falling between $13,216.3 billion and $13,781.3 billion.
  • A 99.7% probability of falling between $13,075.0 billion and $13,922.5 billion.

The midpoint for our forecast range for real GDP in 2012-Q1 is currently $13,498.8 billion. We will revise these projections as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revises its estimate of real GDP in 2011-Q4. The BEA will release its second and third estimates of real 2011-Q4 GDP in February 2012 and March 2012 respectively.

Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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