Political Calculations

Posted July 09, 2014

From 2007 through mid-2009, the federal minimum wage was increased by over 40%. Combined with other minimum wage hikes at the state and local level and low inflation in the U.S. in the years since, there has effectively been no recovery for teen jobs in the United States:

Posted July 07, 2014

If a new stable trend develops, it would be a very positive development for the U.S. housing market, as another major collapse in home prices would be unlikely.

Posted July 06, 2014

Unlike in the fourth quarter of 2012, which set the record for the greatest number of extra dividends paid as part of the Great Dividend Raid, there wouldn't seem to be an obvious tax avoidance strategy at work during the first six months of 2014.

Posted June 30, 2014

What is the difference between having armed school officials/resource officers on site and relying upon police officers at a station just over two miles away when it comes to protecting the lives of students at a public school when there is a mass shooting incident?

Posted June 23, 2014

Depending upon the household income of those who bought health insurance through the ACA exchanges, the amount of subsidies that they might need to repay when they file their 2014 income tax returns could be hundreds or thousands of dollars.

Posted June 22, 2014

It's often assumed that the kind of technology that automates the jobs that low income earners can do will come to replace the people who do those jobs. But is that really true?

Posted June 16, 2014

Since October 2009, three months after the last federal minimum wage increase, there has been virtually no jobs recovery for American teens.

Posted June 15, 2014

We've noted before that most murder victims in the United States are often demographically-related to their murderers, but did you know that they would also appear to be even more closely linked on their social networks?

Posted June 09, 2014

That number of companies cutting their dividend is still elevated, and is consistent with mildly recessionary conditions being present in the U.S. economy.

Posted June 08, 2014

Pay attention to what it means for stock prices if investors remain focused on that particular point in the future going into summer

Posted May 28, 2014

From time to time, we encounter some really strange comments from people who are generally well respected in the world of stock market analysis.

Posted May 27, 2014

What does it mean to say that stock prices will "revert to their mean"? After all, aren't stock prices supposed to be random?

Posted May 26, 2014

There's no guarantee that an investor relying upon technical analysis will make the correct investment decision given the same technical signal.

Posted May 24, 2014

We think that Pinch Sulzberger is an idiot. There. We said it. Now, let's discuss why we think that....

Posted May 17, 2014

The WSJ's Real Time Economics blog recently caught our attention with the following headline: Why the Nation's Hot Housing Market Is Cooling Slightly. After wiping down our monitor after our initial spit-take, we found it to be a fairly decent article.

Posted May 12, 2014

While these figures would still suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing recessionary conditions, it is a marked improvement over each of the first three months of the year, in which a combined total of 91 U.S. publicly-traded companies acted to cut dividend payments to their owners and shareholders.

Posted May 11, 2014

From what we've previously observed, it takes about six months for the full impact of a minimum wage increase to be felt in the economy after its hiked - whether at the state level or at the federal level.

Posted May 05, 2014

The answer has a lot to do with the distortionary effects of the second U.S. housing bubble.

Posted May 04, 2014

While winter weather disrupted a portion of the nation's economy for a short period during 2014-Q1, primarily in the northeast and upper midwest regions of the country, the real primary cause of the low economic growth recorded in the first quarter of 2014 is the outcome of the Fed's decision to begin tapering its Quantitative Easing program and its effect in driving up long-term interest rates from their historic lows.

Posted April 21, 2014

According to preliminary data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the trailing twelve month average of median sale prices for new homes fell in February 2014 after peaking a month earlier.

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