Political Calculations

Posted July 31, 2015

When did the earliest advertisement for Campbell's brand new line of condensed soups appear in a local U.S. newspaper?

Posted July 30, 2015

Based on preliminary data, it appears that the second U.S. housing bubble may have entered a new phase.

Posted July 28, 2015

How different would the value of the S&P 500 be if not for the amount of stock buybacks that have taken place in the U.S. stock market since the end of 2008?

Posted July 24, 2015

Visual Correlations Between Rent and Housing Prices.

Posted July 23, 2015

How much did it cost the producer of the goods you see for sale at a retailer to actually make those goods?

Posted July 22, 2015

How important is farming to the economy of each of the United States?

Posted July 21, 2015

Last week, we indicated that stock prices in the U.S., through Tuesday, 14 July 2015, were "running hot" and were "almost 3% higher than they might otherwise be" because of positive news regarding the resolution of Greece's debt default crisis.

Posted July 17, 2015

Since 4 August 2011, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the value of the S&P 500 index versus its trailing year dividends per share, has been in a stable, upward trend. On 8 July 2015 though, that trend came within 12 points coming to a sudden end after enduring for nearly four years.

Posted July 16, 2015

Just for the record, we think the Federal Reserve is really trying to set one particular expectation for investors.

Posted July 14, 2015

How volatile are stock prices?

Posted July 10, 2015

Last week, Ricochet's John Gabriel linked to one of our old charts in his article Athens on the Potomac.

Posted July 09, 2015

After April 2015's data anomaly, the year-over-year growth rate of the value of all the goods exported from the U.S. to China once fell back to levels that suggest that China's economy is experiencing recessionary conditions for the just-reported month of May 2015.

Posted July 08, 2015

By request, we've updated and begun refining our earlier presentation showing the major trends in the number of employed by age group as correlated with changes in the average retail price of gasoline in the U.S.

Posted July 07, 2015

One of the nicer things ever said about the kinds of analysis we do here at Political Calculations recently surfaced over at the ChicagoBoyz blog, as Grurray took on the challenge of explaining the unique brand of stock market forecasting we do.

Posted June 26, 2015

Last week, when we unveiled our charts showing the historic price of the No. 1 can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup for almost every month since January 1898 to the present, we couldn't help but notice that its price trajectory seemed to be pretty similar to that of the price of gold in the U.S.

Posted June 25, 2015

We now have a handle on what the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends per share is through 2016-Q2.

Posted May 14, 2015

One of the challenges we've taken on this year is developing more real-time indicators of the health of the U.S. economy.

Posted May 13, 2015

We had planned to retire our chart tracking the change in the number of employeed by age group since November 2007, when the total employment level in the U.S. peaked ahead of the beginning of the so-called "Great Recession", but data in the April 2015 Employment Situation report is giving us cause to resuscitate it.

Posted May 12, 2015

With the spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil having broken above $50 in the second week of April 2015, it now appears that the rebound in oil prices has now put new jobless claims in the eight high cost oil production states we've been tracking on the verge of breaking what had been their statistical uptrend for layoffs.

Posted May 08, 2015

Supporters of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which is popularly known as "Obamacare" and is often abbreviated as "ACA", have claimed that the law is responsible for bending the cost curve of expected future health care spending down from its previous trajectory.

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