Political Calculations

Posted October 31, 2014

Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a better insight into the U.S. real estate market for new homes.

Posted October 30, 2014

Can we use monthly payroll tax collection data to reasonably approximate the median income being earned by U.S. households?

Posted October 29, 2014

That's a question we realized we could answer as we went about solving a different problem.

Posted October 28, 2014

Looking forward through the next two weeks, we would anticipate that in the absence of noise or an announcement from the Fed specifying that they will begin hiking short term interest rates in 2015-Q2, which would prompt a shift in focus.

Posted October 27, 2014

The unfortunate news of the Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.

Posted October 24, 2014

The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.

Posted October 23, 2014

In fact, it's really pretty rare for investors to maintain any sort of focus on the current quarter in setting stock prices for any sustained period of time.

Posted October 22, 2014

Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year?

Posted October 17, 2014

This may surprise a lot of people, mainly because it stands in such contrast to the work product of their journalistic peers, but a lot of financial reporting is pretty well done.wall

Posted October 16, 2014

Something strange is going on with young adults in the U.S. job market.

Posted October 15, 2014

It's wrong to use direct statistical analysis to describe how stock prices behave for any really long period of time.

Posted October 13, 2014

In August 2014, we see that the year over year growth rate of the goods that the U.S. imports from China decelerated to the lowest level recorded since February 2014, corresponding to the period of negative economic growth that the U.S. economy experienced in the first quarter of 2014

Posted October 11, 2014

How do you stop a determined terrorist from ramming their explosives-laden vehicle into their target?

Posted October 10, 2014

Looking at the year-over-year growth rate of the value of the goods that China imports from the United States, we see that China's economy also slowed, but is growing more rapidly than the U.S. economy, reversing the situation that existed earlier in the summer.

Posted October 09, 2014

At the risk of prompting another investigation by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority into our activities, was yesterday's market carnage the result of something we said as it propagated across the Internet?

Posted October 08, 2014

Outside of those limited periods of time where companies change their dividend policies in response to changes in the taxes that apply to the investment income of their shareholders, the number of companies that act to cut their dividends in any given month provides a pretty good indication of the general health of the U.S. economy.

Posted October 07, 2014

Normally, after coming back from a week-long vacation, we would ask if anything interesting happened in the stock markets. But since nothing really unpredictable happened while we were away, we'll just skip over that formality...

Posted October 06, 2014

Posted October 05, 2014

If investors shift their focus among these and the other alternative futures, then stock prices are likely to be very volatile, with a great likelihood of decline.

Posted September 28, 2014

Earlier last week, we indicated that we were about to get our first glimpse of the expected future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share for the third quarter of 2015. We now have it!