Political Calculations

Posted October 24, 2014

The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.

Posted October 23, 2014

In fact, it's really pretty rare for investors to maintain any sort of focus on the current quarter in setting stock prices for any sustained period of time.

Posted October 22, 2014

Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year?

Posted October 17, 2014

This may surprise a lot of people, mainly because it stands in such contrast to the work product of their journalistic peers, but a lot of financial reporting is pretty well done.wall

Posted October 16, 2014

Something strange is going on with young adults in the U.S. job market.

Posted October 15, 2014

It's wrong to use direct statistical analysis to describe how stock prices behave for any really long period of time.

Posted October 13, 2014

In August 2014, we see that the year over year growth rate of the goods that the U.S. imports from China decelerated to the lowest level recorded since February 2014, corresponding to the period of negative economic growth that the U.S. economy experienced in the first quarter of 2014

Posted October 11, 2014

How do you stop a determined terrorist from ramming their explosives-laden vehicle into their target?

Posted October 10, 2014

Looking at the year-over-year growth rate of the value of the goods that China imports from the United States, we see that China's economy also slowed, but is growing more rapidly than the U.S. economy, reversing the situation that existed earlier in the summer.

Posted October 09, 2014

At the risk of prompting another investigation by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority into our activities, was yesterday's market carnage the result of something we said as it propagated across the Internet?

Posted October 08, 2014

Outside of those limited periods of time where companies change their dividend policies in response to changes in the taxes that apply to the investment income of their shareholders, the number of companies that act to cut their dividends in any given month provides a pretty good indication of the general health of the U.S. economy.

Posted October 07, 2014

Normally, after coming back from a week-long vacation, we would ask if anything interesting happened in the stock markets. But since nothing really unpredictable happened while we were away, we'll just skip over that formality...

Posted October 06, 2014

Posted October 05, 2014

If investors shift their focus among these and the other alternative futures, then stock prices are likely to be very volatile, with a great likelihood of decline.

Posted September 28, 2014

Earlier last week, we indicated that we were about to get our first glimpse of the expected future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share for the third quarter of 2015. We now have it!

Posted September 24, 2014

No wonder Obamacare's employer mandate is so increasingly unpopular!

Posted September 21, 2014

We suspect that the absence of jobs being created within that margin plays a big role in the assessment of Americans that there is and has been no meaningful economic recovery since the official end of the last recession.

Posted September 20, 2014

After looking at the overall history of the net change in the number of full time and part time jobs in the U.S. since 1968, we had a question that relates to the job market today: What broke the job market in the United States?

Posted September 15, 2014

If we ignore the third quarter of 2013, when the number of dividend cutting companies briefly dropped below the Recession Line, we could describe the U.S. economy as having been in microrecession since August 2012


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