Political Calculations

Posted July 30, 2014

We think we may finally have a decent handle on how to compensate for the echo effect in our forecasting of the S&P 500's future.

Posted July 27, 2014

The feel-good bubble for solar power enthusiasts burst just days later when it became clear that 13-year old had made mistakes in his science work backing his invention.

Posted July 26, 2014

The tiny community web site of the tiny town located on the northwest corner of Long Island, New York announced that a 13-year old Northport Middle School student had applied a principle found in trees that could improve the performance of solar panels...

Posted July 24, 2014

In the chart, we see that North Dakota is currently the leader among all states, surging considerably in 2013. We also see that the state has consistently ranked high by this measure from 1999 through the present.

Posted July 21, 2014

As a case study of how important that aspect of leadership is and how much it is missed when it is lacking, let's consider a day in 2014 when the news of the death of 295 people aboard a Malaysian Airlines 777 commercial airliner became known around 11:30 AM EDT and how U.S. President Barack Obama handled it.

Posted July 20, 2014

This is how the U.S. Federal Reserve can lend more money to the U.S. federal government than the U.S. government appears to have borrowed, even as the Fed is reducing the amount it lends to the government!

Posted July 16, 2014

While that may sound like some sort of psychological issue, for us, that's a real question because of a surprising turn of events last week, when investor expectations for the current quarter of 2014-Q3 suddenly shifted.

Posted July 09, 2014

From 2007 through mid-2009, the federal minimum wage was increased by over 40%. Combined with other minimum wage hikes at the state and local level and low inflation in the U.S. in the years since, there has effectively been no recovery for teen jobs in the United States:

Posted July 07, 2014

If a new stable trend develops, it would be a very positive development for the U.S. housing market, as another major collapse in home prices would be unlikely.

Posted July 06, 2014

Unlike in the fourth quarter of 2012, which set the record for the greatest number of extra dividends paid as part of the Great Dividend Raid, there wouldn't seem to be an obvious tax avoidance strategy at work during the first six months of 2014.

Posted June 30, 2014

What is the difference between having armed school officials/resource officers on site and relying upon police officers at a station just over two miles away when it comes to protecting the lives of students at a public school when there is a mass shooting incident?

Posted June 23, 2014

Depending upon the household income of those who bought health insurance through the ACA exchanges, the amount of subsidies that they might need to repay when they file their 2014 income tax returns could be hundreds or thousands of dollars.

Posted June 22, 2014

It's often assumed that the kind of technology that automates the jobs that low income earners can do will come to replace the people who do those jobs. But is that really true?

Posted June 16, 2014

Since October 2009, three months after the last federal minimum wage increase, there has been virtually no jobs recovery for American teens.

Posted June 15, 2014

We've noted before that most murder victims in the United States are often demographically-related to their murderers, but did you know that they would also appear to be even more closely linked on their social networks?

Posted June 09, 2014

That number of companies cutting their dividend is still elevated, and is consistent with mildly recessionary conditions being present in the U.S. economy.

Posted June 08, 2014

Pay attention to what it means for stock prices if investors remain focused on that particular point in the future going into summer

Posted May 28, 2014

From time to time, we encounter some really strange comments from people who are generally well respected in the world of stock market analysis.


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