Political Calculations

Posted May 25, 2016

On Monday, 16 May 2016, the U.S. Treasury updated its accounting of the national origins of the major foreign holders of debt issued by the U.S. government through the end of March 2016, the halfway point of the federal government's fiscal year.

Posted May 24, 2016

Quite a lot has happened since we last commented on the S&P 500 and the news events that influenced it during the first part of the third week of May 2016.

Posted May 20, 2016

Last year, on 20 August 2016, a four year long period of order in the U.S. stock market came to a crashing end.

Posted May 19, 2016

Although the poorly laid plans of the TSA interfered with our usual posting schedule this week, we're fortunate in that recent developments in the market are giving us something far more interesting to write about today that what we might otherwise have discussed this past Monday.

Posted May 13, 2016

How much money does the U.S. federal government owe to China?

Posted May 12, 2016

Every now and again, we run into historic price data that we weren't expecting to find. When we do, we visualize it!

Posted May 11, 2016

How is the pace of dividend cuts in the U.S. stock market during 2016-Q2 coming along compared to the previous quarter? And how does that compare to the pace of dividend cuts that was recorded in the year ago quarter of 2015-Q2?

Posted May 10, 2016

If it seems like not much happened in the U.S. stock market in the first week of May 2016, that's because not much happened.

Posted May 06, 2016

If you were paying attention to the news yesterday, you probably heard that the United States' trade deficit with the rest of the world hit was the smallest it has been in several years.

Posted May 04, 2016

We have some good news! For the first time since October 2015, the number of U.S. firms that announced dividend cuts during a calendar month dropped below the level where we can be reasonably certain that at least part of the U.S. economy is experiencing significant contraction.

Posted May 03, 2016

"As expected", is the answer to the question "How did the S&P 500 behave during Week 4 of April 2016?"

Posted April 28, 2016

In the first quarter of 2016, the preliminary monthly data for the number and value of new home sales throughout the United States indicates that the growth of the U.S. new home market has stalled out with respect to the previous quarter.

Posted April 27, 2016

Through the end of Fiscal Year 2015, back on 30 September 2015, we estimate that the ratio of the United States' total public debt outstanding to the nation's median household income is approximately 263%.

Posted April 26, 2016

Through Friday, 22 April 2016, the pace at which publicly-traded U.S. companies are cutting their dividends is much higher than what was recorded at the same point of time during the first quarter of 2016.

Posted April 22, 2016

We have been periodically tracking the statistical trends for the number of new jobless claims in the United States, at both the national level and also at the subnational level. Today, we're going to update what we're seeing in the data.

Posted April 19, 2016

It seems like we just talked about the alternative futures for the S&P 500, which is because we did just last Thursday as we explored the decline in stock price volatility our model projects through the second quarter of 2016.

Posted April 15, 2016

On Wednesday, 6 April 2016, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said something that, for once, didn't move stock prices.

Posted April 14, 2016

How much will California's recently passed legislation to raise its minimum wage from its current level of $10.00 per hour to $15.00 per hour by 2021 (or 2022 at the latest) have upon the state's employment levels by age?

Posted April 12, 2016

It seems strange to refer to a trading week that began with Monday, 7 April as "Week 1" of the month of April, but we're stuck with it because we referred to the previous week as "Week 5" of March 2016!

Posted April 11, 2016

If you were to drag a $100 bill through Harvard Yard, there's no telling what fool thing you can get a Harvard professor to sign onto, even if it hurts themselves.


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