Political Calculations

Posted December 17, 2014

For all the noise related to falling oil prices and their impact upon stock prices during the past week, there is something that we have not yet seen that would fully confirm the fears of U.S. investors: large numbers of companies in the oil sector acting to cut their dividends.

Posted December 12, 2014

For the second month in a row, our alternative measure of the relative health of China's economy indicates that nation is potentially in recession.

Posted December 11, 2014

The biggest change in the current week so far has been an uptick in the amount of dividends expected to be paid in 2015-Q1, which we see in the narrowing of the spread between the alternative future trajectory for that quarter and 2015-Q3.

Posted December 05, 2014

The preliminary data for both the median sale price and the average sale price of all new homes sold in the U.S. appeared to spike dramatically upward to reach all time record levels for the month of October 2014.

Posted December 04, 2014

Folks, either some or all of these numbers are simply wrong or there's something really weird going on in the U.S.' new home market.

Posted November 29, 2014

A lot of Americans set out to do a lot of their shopping for Christmas on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, but that can present a dilemma to the Christmas shopper if their money is tight...

Posted November 28, 2014

After you watch these timely videos, you'll have a much better appreciation for our suggested conversation tips for this year's Thanksgiving dinner. Because otherwise, it could have been a lot like this:

Posted November 27, 2014

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table. We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year.

Posted November 20, 2014

Every three months, in the middle of each financial quarter, we've been taking a snapshot of the earnings per share for the S&P 500 that are expected going forward for as far as Standard & Poor projects them.

Posted November 19, 2014

The question now is: are the immigration reform wonks smart enough to adopt the rest of our plan for dealing with illegal immigration?

Posted November 13, 2014

As measured by the year-over-year growth rate of the total value of the goods it imports from the U.S., in September 2014, China's economy sank into recessionary territory.

Posted November 12, 2014

The October 2014 Employment Situation report was easily the best single jobs report of the past seven years.

Posted November 07, 2014

Since we were just discussing our counterfactual for GDP in the age of quantitative easing, which involves the nominal values, we thought we'd follow up with our latest projections for real GDP.

Posted November 06, 2014

On Wednesday, 29 October 2014, the U.S. Federal Reserve released a statement that was considerably modified from its previous statements.

Posted November 05, 2014

For a lot of people, last week's estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2014 represented what would be the last bit of major economic news that voters would see going into today's midterm elections.

Posted October 31, 2014

Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a better insight into the U.S. real estate market for new homes.

Posted October 30, 2014

Can we use monthly payroll tax collection data to reasonably approximate the median income being earned by U.S. households?

Posted October 29, 2014

That's a question we realized we could answer as we went about solving a different problem.

Posted October 28, 2014

Looking forward through the next two weeks, we would anticipate that in the absence of noise or an announcement from the Fed specifying that they will begin hiking short term interest rates in 2015-Q2, which would prompt a shift in focus.

Posted October 27, 2014

The unfortunate news of the Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.


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