Political Calculations

Posted January 22, 2015

With President Obama's 2015 State of the Union address now behind us, we thought we'd follow up on a 2011 post, which showed that the post-recession jobs recovery in the U.S. wasn't quite as good as claimed by the President's political supporters in the U.S. Congress.

Posted January 20, 2015

Via e-mail, one of our readers asked some very good questions, which frame the seemingly fortunate economic situation in the U.S. pretty well.

Posted January 15, 2015

For the third month in a row, our alternative measure of the relative health of China indicates that nation's economy is contracting.

Posted January 14, 2015

This is the last time that we're going to feature an updated version of the following chart, showing the change in the number of employed Americans by age group since the level of total employment peaked in the U.S. just ahead of the so-called Great Recession.

Posted January 09, 2015

One of the big reasons that new home prices have escalated during the second U.S. housing bubble is because U.S. home builders deliberately neglected producing affordable homes as investment firms bought up low priced homes in the existing real estate market.

Posted January 06, 2015

Just a couple of charts to help put the progress of the current trend in the U.S. stock market into better context.

Posted January 02, 2015

After a certain point, doing this sort of thing is a lot like shooting fish in a barrel, because what we're doing is much more science than art - it works because it's simply applied physics with direct parallels to the laws of motion.

Posted December 25, 2014

We thought we'd take on answering that question in our final post of the year. What we specifically set out to identify is the biggest story of 2014 where the application of maths either was or became the story.

Posted December 19, 2014

We do this sort of thing routinely. So much so that we don't even bother calling attention to it any more unless it is to point out an obvious gap in someone's understanding of what is possible.

Posted December 17, 2014

For all the noise related to falling oil prices and their impact upon stock prices during the past week, there is something that we have not yet seen that would fully confirm the fears of U.S. investors: large numbers of companies in the oil sector acting to cut their dividends.

Posted December 12, 2014

For the second month in a row, our alternative measure of the relative health of China's economy indicates that nation is potentially in recession.

Posted December 11, 2014

The biggest change in the current week so far has been an uptick in the amount of dividends expected to be paid in 2015-Q1, which we see in the narrowing of the spread between the alternative future trajectory for that quarter and 2015-Q3.

Posted December 05, 2014

The preliminary data for both the median sale price and the average sale price of all new homes sold in the U.S. appeared to spike dramatically upward to reach all time record levels for the month of October 2014.

Posted December 04, 2014

Folks, either some or all of these numbers are simply wrong or there's something really weird going on in the U.S.' new home market.

Posted November 29, 2014

A lot of Americans set out to do a lot of their shopping for Christmas on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, but that can present a dilemma to the Christmas shopper if their money is tight...

Posted November 28, 2014

After you watch these timely videos, you'll have a much better appreciation for our suggested conversation tips for this year's Thanksgiving dinner. Because otherwise, it could have been a lot like this:

Posted November 27, 2014

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table. We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year.

Posted November 20, 2014

Every three months, in the middle of each financial quarter, we've been taking a snapshot of the earnings per share for the S&P 500 that are expected going forward for as far as Standard & Poor projects them.

Posted November 19, 2014

The question now is: are the immigration reform wonks smart enough to adopt the rest of our plan for dealing with illegal immigration?

Posted November 13, 2014

As measured by the year-over-year growth rate of the total value of the goods it imports from the U.S., in September 2014, China's economy sank into recessionary territory.