Political Calculations

Posted July 21, 2016

Nearly a month ago, we presented our "most likely" prediction for how the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will revise the U.S.' Real Gross Domestic Product on Friday, 29 July 2016.

Posted July 19, 2016

The second week of July 2016 was one of those rare weeks when our futures-based model for projecting the future closing value of the S&P 500 was very nearly dead on target for every day of the week, as long as you recognize that target was fixed by investors focusing on the second quarter of 2017 (2017-Q2) in making their current day investment decisions.

Posted July 15, 2016

After visualizing how U.S. GDP has evolved since the first quarter of 1947, both with and without the contribution of the federal government and also state and local governments, we couldn't help but notice that the U.S. federal government's contribution to GDP in recent years was far below the amount of money that it spends.

Posted July 14, 2016

Not long ago, we received an interesting request from one of our longtime readers: Could you do an article and specifically a graphic that would show what the US economy would look like in GDP terms without the Federal, State and Local governments? Say from 1970 to present? It would be informative to see the GDP growth less government spending.

Posted July 13, 2016

What is the "typical" annual trajectory for the S&P 500 during a year?

Posted July 12, 2016

There really wasn't much of note to comment about in the first full week of July 2016, at least, until Friday, 8 July 2016, when something interesting happened. Let's flip the order that we normally recap the previous week's action for the S&P 500 and review the more significant headlines from the Week 1 of July 2016.

Posted July 08, 2016

June 2016 saw the number of U.S. firms announcing dividend cuts exceed the number of U.S. firms announcing dividend increases for the first time since the end of the Great Recession and also for the fifth time in all the 150 months for which Standard and Poor has published data.

Posted July 07, 2016

Despite having provided the mainstream financial media with a sporting chance, we find ourselves in the position of breaking news this morning with respect to an event that happened last week.

Posted July 06, 2016

The fifth week of June 2016 had another Lvy flight event for the S&P 500, following very quickly after the Brexit-driven event of Week 4, only now in the opposite direction from what we saw last week.

Posted July 01, 2016

Not long ago, we built a tool to estimate the economic impact of new jobs, where we focused on what the economic footprint that particular industries might have if they were to start doing business in a community.

Posted June 30, 2016

Although the data for recent months is still preliminary, it appears that the rapid inflation phase of the second bubble for new home prices in the U.S. ended in September 2015.

Posted June 29, 2016

The U.S. Federal Reserve released its latest Flow of Funds report for the U.S. economy back on 9 June 2016, which we're finally getting around to today to give us a better idea of how the U.S. economy performed in the first quarter of 2016.

Posted June 28, 2016

If you want to know where stock prices are going to go next, you need to know three things:

Posted June 23, 2016

How much will U.S. GDP most likely be revised when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its annual revision to the nation's real GDP on 29 July 2016?

Posted June 21, 2016

How is the pace of dividend cuts in the U.S. stock market during 2016-Q2 coming along compared to the previous quarter? And how does that compare to the pace of dividend cuts that was recorded in the year ago quarter of 2015-Q2?

Posted June 16, 2016

Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimates of state level Gross Domestic Product through 2015-Q4. As it did, the BEA revised its previous quarterly GDP estimates for each state going back to at least 2005-Q1.

Posted June 15, 2016

What if your town got really lucky and landed a new major employer - one that would directly bring hundreds of high-paying jobs to your community that would also boost the number of other jobs available locally? How big of an economic benefit could that be for your town?

Posted June 14, 2016

After the fireworks of the previous week, the second week of June 2016 was extremely quiet by comparison.

Posted June 09, 2016

How much can climate change impact the economy?

Posted June 08, 2016

There is really no other way to describe the state of international trade between the United States and China other than to say that not only has it stopped growing, it has started to shrink.

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