Political Calculations

Posted August 28, 2015

Believe it or not, August is shaping up to be the second best month for dividends in 2015.

Posted August 27, 2015

Based on the outcome of the remarkable volatility of trading in the U.S. stock market on 25 August 2015, our rebaselined model of how stock prices work would say that investors are now fully focused on the first quarter of 2016 as they go about setting stock prices.

Posted August 26, 2015

A little over two years ago, the suggestion that Larry Summers was likely to be appointed to be put in charge of the Federal Reserve was enough to make the stock market swoon.

Posted August 25, 2015

USA Today's Matt Krantz considered an interesting premise at 4:59 PM EDT on 21 August 2015, just after the Dow Jones Industrial average lost 531 points and the S&P 500 lost 65: "How low the stock market can go".

Posted August 20, 2015

Earlier this year, we broke the news that the Apollo Education Group (NASDAQ: APOL), the parent company of the University of Phoenix, had suffered a major setback with respect to its strategic plan to become a major provider of educational software.

Posted August 18, 2015

After a rough July, in which the number of U.S. firms announcing dividend cuts directly paced what we saw during the first quarter of 2015, it would appear that the U.S. economy in August is shaping up to be much less severe.

Posted August 14, 2015

Since we counted up all of the S&P 500's losing streaks by their duration earlier this week, we thought we'd follow up and repeat the exercise for all the S&P 500's winning streaks before the week ended.

Posted August 12, 2015

We learned long ago that trade data published by the Chinese government is almost completely unreliable for anything other than indicating its economy's basic direction.

Posted August 11, 2015

We don't normally follow the Dow Industrials index (NYSE: DJI), since it really doesn't capture enough of the breadth of the U.S. stock market, but last Friday, 7 August 2015 saw a pretty rare occurrence, with the Dow having closed lower than the previous day for the seventh consecutive trading day in a row.

Posted August 07, 2015

Going by the number of publicly-traded U.S. companies that announced they were cutting their dividend payments in July 2015, perhaps the simplest and most powerful indicator of the nation's relative economic health, it appears that a significant portion of the U.S. economy is continuing to experience recessionary conditions.

Posted August 05, 2015

In our last installment in our national dividend series, we were striving to turn our work in developing a consumption-based national dividend concept for measuring the economic well-being of typical Americans into a monthly economic indicator.

Posted August 04, 2015

Last week, we considered what the potential impact of stock buybacks would be to the S&P 500 as if the venerable stock market index was the stock price of a single company.

Posted July 31, 2015

When did the earliest advertisement for Campbell's brand new line of condensed soups appear in a local U.S. newspaper?

Posted July 30, 2015

Based on preliminary data, it appears that the second U.S. housing bubble may have entered a new phase.

Posted July 28, 2015

How different would the value of the S&P 500 be if not for the amount of stock buybacks that have taken place in the U.S. stock market since the end of 2008?

Posted July 24, 2015

Visual Correlations Between Rent and Housing Prices.

Posted July 23, 2015

How much did it cost the producer of the goods you see for sale at a retailer to actually make those goods?

Posted July 22, 2015

How important is farming to the economy of each of the United States?

Posted July 21, 2015

Last week, we indicated that stock prices in the U.S., through Tuesday, 14 July 2015, were "running hot" and were "almost 3% higher than they might otherwise be" because of positive news regarding the resolution of Greece's debt default crisis.

Posted July 17, 2015

Since 4 August 2011, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the value of the S&P 500 index versus its trailing year dividends per share, has been in a stable, upward trend. On 8 July 2015 though, that trend came within 12 points coming to a sudden end after enduring for nearly four years.