At the end of the last week of January 2016, stock prices rallied on the news that the Bank of Japan would implement negative interest rates in that country and that the Fed was likely to back off its plans to hike interest rates again before the end of 2016-Q1.
According to new jobless claims, economic distress within the U.S. has spread outside of the oil patch states, as what had been a trend of improvement stoked by falling oil prices has apparently come to a clear end.
Just one week ago, we observed that the pace of dividend cuts being announced in the first quarter of 2016 was "slower than at the same point of time in the first quarter of 2015. Which is an early indication that the U.S. economy is so far performing better than it did a year ago."
What if you had advance knowledge of how the U.S. stock market would behave in the upcoming week? Or at the very least, you were told by someone who works in the future exact how the market would respond to a given set of circumstances that would be likely to play out in the week ahead, but not exactly when the market when the market would react to those circumstances.
Did you catch the headline in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about new home sales?
Last June, we took on an unusual project, where we extracted the advertised sale price of a single iconic can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup from dozens of newspapers and more modern day sources for each month from January 1898 through the present.
It turns out that we have some sort of gift for understatement. Here is the conclusion to what we posted about what to expect for the S&P 500 for Week 3 of January 2016 well before the opening of trading on Tuesday, 19 January 2016.
We are currently working on a project where we're seeking to correlate large changes in the value of the S&P 500 with the timing of announcements of dividend cuts during the so-called "Great Recession".
On Friday, 15 January 2015, the S&P 500 fell by 2.16%, from a value of 1921.84 to 1880.33, which in a week dominated by discussions of the odds of winning the Powerball lottery, is the kind of decline that has only a 1.75% chance of happening.
It was delayed until 13 January 2015, but Standard and Poor's monthly dividend report for December 2015 [Excel spreadsheet] is now out!
On 20 August 2015, a four year-long period of order broke down in the U.S. stock market, where in the period since, the behavior of stock prices may be characterized as chaotic. Our chart below shows how differently stock prices are behaving today as compared to the preceding period of order.
We're going to play a little bit of catch up today, starting from the last time in 2015 that we discussed where the S&P 500 was going to head next.
For an economy whose growth is hypothesized by some to be over, China is showing some surprising indications of economic expansion.
As we were going on our annual Christmas holiday, the news broke that new home sales in the U.S. fell below the economic consensus. Worse, the U.S. Census Bureau's estimates of the number of new home sales in previous months were also revised significantly downward.
In the end, it was close, but where U.S. companies announcing dividend cuts in 2015 are concerned, the first quarter of the year was ever so slightly worse than the final quarter of the year!
We'd like to share what the future looks like for the S&P 500 at this point of time....
One week ago, we described the pace of U.S. companies announcing that they would be cutting their cash dividend payments to their shareholders as being between "slow-to-slowing growth and contraction".
Once upon a time, the only way that sailors crossing oceans could know if they were on course to their destinations required them to know what time it was.
Whenever the U.S. Federal Reserve has the full attention of investors, they give us the ability to tell how far forward investors are looking in time as they are making their current day investment decisions.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau's monthly data on the median sale prices of new homes in the U.S., the median sale prices of new homes in the U.S. through October 2015 are at the second highest level they have ever been, having fallen from the highest they have ever been in September 2015.