Political Calculations

Posted September 15, 2014

If we ignore the third quarter of 2013, when the number of dividend cutting companies briefly dropped below the Recession Line, we could describe the U.S. economy as having been in microrecession since August 2012

Posted September 14, 2014

Posted September 11, 2014

Evidence continues to mount that all is not well for the new home sales market in the United States. Now that we're armed with the most recent data available for median new home sale prices and median household income through the month of July 2014, let's update the picture of where things stand...

Posted September 10, 2014

Another month, another 15 companies announcing that they'll be paying less out in dividends in the future, making August 2014 the tenth consecutive month in which the number of companies acting to cut their dividends has been elevated above the "Recession Line".

Posted September 07, 2014

Posted September 02, 2014

Now that we've established what the relative purchasing power of a dollar is in each of the United States, we're going to apply that information today to solve one of the great problems of our time: how to set the minimum wage in each state in order to achieve purchasing power equality.

Posted September 01, 2014

What if you could hack your brain to boost your IQ? Would you do it? How can you do it?

Posted August 31, 2014

What we observe for the actual trajectory of stock prices (solid blue line) over the past week is consistent with investors continuing to primarily focus on 2015-Q2 in setting today's stock prices

Posted August 28, 2014

In the map, the Tax Foundation has adjusted the value of $100 according to its spending power in each state, or rather, for each state's relative purchasing power parity, and in doing so, has shown that 100 U.S. dollars is not worth the same in each state in terms of how much of a defined basket of goods and services that it can buy.

Posted August 25, 2014

Through the end of 2014, the level of earnings has dropped to a level between what investors had previously expected back on 15 August 2013 and 14 November 2013.

Posted August 24, 2014

During the December 2007-June 2009 recession, the number of jobs at the margins of the U.S. economy increased significantly through the period of major job loss ending in December 2009, even though total employment and the number of Americans employed by non-farm establishments fell.

Posted August 22, 2014

Part time employment started off the recession at 24,758,000, but instead of decreasing as jobs disappeared from the U.S. economy, the number of Americans employed part time increased by 2,721,000 through December 2009.

Posted August 20, 2014

The data suggests that investors have been and are currently focused upon 2015-Q2 in setting today's stock prices, since this quarter marks the period of time at which the Federal Reserve is most likely to act to increase short term interest rates in the U.S. for the first time in several years.

Posted August 18, 2014

Posted August 13, 2014

The number of U.S. companies acting to cut their dividends during July 2014 remained elevated at 15, down slightly from the 16 U.S. companies that took similar actions in June 2014, as recessionary conditions continue to be present in the U.S. economy.

Posted August 12, 2014

When laughing hysterically, it often helps to take a short time out to catch your breath before continuing on with the thing that provoked your laughter. You'll want to pause now, because the carefully selected and limited number of spooky coincidences are discussed next....

Posted August 11, 2014

Posted August 09, 2014

We've long been tracking how American teens, who make up the most marginal of workers in the U.S. economy, have fared with respect to older Americans in the U.S. job market since the total employment level last peaked in November 2007.

Posted August 06, 2014

How differently would the U.S. economy have performed without the Federal Reserve's efforts to stimulate the economy through its most recent Quantitative Easing (QE) programs?

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