Political Calculations

Posted November 25, 2015

Last Thanksgiving, we presented a chart featuring a spurious correlation between the average live weight of U.S. farm raised turkeys and the MSCI World Stock Market Index, in which we showed how U.S. turkeys predict global stock market crashes. Here's what we wrote at the time....

Posted November 24, 2015

In 2015, the estimated population of turkeys raised on U.S. farms fell to its lowest level in 29 years, dropping nationally by 4% to 228 million.

Posted November 20, 2015

Just over a decade ago, we discovered the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' resources for digging deeper into GDP, including applications that could break the nation's GDP down by both industry and state.

Posted November 19, 2015

What effect has the Federal Reserve's previous Quantitative Easing (QE) programs had on the acceleration of private debt in the U.S. economy?

Posted November 18, 2015

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter. Today, we'll confirm that the earnings recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2014 has continued to deepen. Again.

Posted November 17, 2015

U.S. markets had already closed on Friday, 13 November 2015 before news of the Islamic terror attacks in Paris, France first crossed the wires, so the first part of our analysis of the U.S. stock market below will consider the state of the market before the targeted massacre of ordinary Parisians.

Posted November 12, 2015

Normally, we take a look at the year over year growth rates of U.S. exports to China and China's exports to the U.S. once a month, mainly because it gives an indication of the relative health of both nations' economies, but since the latest data from September 2015 really doesn't tell us anything different from what we saw in the data for August 2015, we're going to let that analysis ride for now and look at the underlying data a little differently.

Posted November 11, 2015

Now that stock prices are once again reaching near the levels where they peaked before they crashed back on 20 August 2015, a lot of people are wondering if the U.S. stock market has gotten back to normal.

Posted November 10, 2015

We're going to pick up where we left off almost two weeks ago by beginning with a look at the acceleration of the year over year growth rate of stock prices against the backdrop of their fundamental driver: the expected change in the growth rate of trailing year dividends that will be paid in the current and next three quarters of the future.

Posted November 06, 2015

In the charts below, we're going to explore the evolution of private debt in the United States, as reported by the U.S. Federal Reserve in its Flow of Funds data, spanning all the years for which we have quarterly data, showing the results since January 1954.

Posted November 04, 2015

Following up our post from 2 November 2015, in which we noted that the number of U.S. firms announcing dividend cuts had crossed into contractionary territory where the relative health of the U.S. economy is concerned, we'll look next at Standard and Poor's count of the number of dividend cutting firms for the month of October 2015, in the context of all the data they've reported monthly since January 2004.

Posted October 30, 2015

The United States has a curious relationship with the price of oil and gasoline. For much of the U.S., falling fuel prices represent a positive economic situation, which gives Americans the opportunity to spend their disposable income on things other than fuel, such as dining out, clothes, and cars. And yes, even more fuel (for leisure travel).

Posted October 29, 2015

Earlier this year, we broke the news that the Apollo Education Group (NASDAQ: APOL), the parent company of the University of Phoenix, had suffered a major setback with respect to its strategic plan to become a major provider of educational software.

Posted October 20, 2015

The Consumer Expenditure Survey for 2014 was released last month, which means that it's time to update our charts showing how much money Americans spend and on what!

Posted October 16, 2015

We don't comment on the analysis posted at ZeroHedge very often, as many of the contributions to the site have a very high noise to signal ratio, but we have to tip our hats to the Tyler Durdens because they've helped answer a question we've had about the internal market mechanics that are needed to drive a Lvy Flight Rally.

Posted October 15, 2015

Since April 2015, while the estimated trailing year average median household income of Americans has increased by roughly $500, the median sale prices of new homes in the United States has essentially moved sideways - holding level at a trailing year average of roughly $290,000.

Posted October 14, 2015

We're seeing more signs of a reversal in China's recent economic fortunes. First, taking advantage of what may be the most unique alternative economic indicator we've developed to date, we observe that the trailing twelve month average of the year-over-year change in Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have rebounded off their June 2015 trough.

Posted October 13, 2015

According the S&P's Monthly Dividend Report (Excel spreadsheet), the U.S. economy is once again experiencing contractionary economic forces.

Posted October 09, 2015

The large and pronounced changes we have been observing in the level of stock prices is the result of what we'll call our quantum random walk hypothesis, which largely resolves and reconciles the fundamental and apparently incompatible differences in the theories advanced by such economists as Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller for how stock prices behave, for which they were jointly awarded the Nobel prize in economics (or whatever it's really called) in 2013.


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