Political Calculations

Posted November 28, 2014

After you watch these timely videos, you'll have a much better appreciation for our suggested conversation tips for this year's Thanksgiving dinner. Because otherwise, it could have been a lot like this:

Posted November 27, 2014

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table. We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year.

Posted November 20, 2014

Every three months, in the middle of each financial quarter, we've been taking a snapshot of the earnings per share for the S&P 500 that are expected going forward for as far as Standard & Poor projects them.

Posted November 19, 2014

The question now is: are the immigration reform wonks smart enough to adopt the rest of our plan for dealing with illegal immigration?

Posted November 13, 2014

As measured by the year-over-year growth rate of the total value of the goods it imports from the U.S., in September 2014, China's economy sank into recessionary territory.

Posted November 12, 2014

The October 2014 Employment Situation report was easily the best single jobs report of the past seven years.

Posted November 07, 2014

Since we were just discussing our counterfactual for GDP in the age of quantitative easing, which involves the nominal values, we thought we'd follow up with our latest projections for real GDP.

Posted November 06, 2014

On Wednesday, 29 October 2014, the U.S. Federal Reserve released a statement that was considerably modified from its previous statements.

Posted November 05, 2014

For a lot of people, last week's estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2014 represented what would be the last bit of major economic news that voters would see going into today's midterm elections.

Posted October 31, 2014

Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a better insight into the U.S. real estate market for new homes.

Posted October 30, 2014

Can we use monthly payroll tax collection data to reasonably approximate the median income being earned by U.S. households?

Posted October 29, 2014

That's a question we realized we could answer as we went about solving a different problem.

Posted October 28, 2014

Looking forward through the next two weeks, we would anticipate that in the absence of noise or an announcement from the Fed specifying that they will begin hiking short term interest rates in 2015-Q2, which would prompt a shift in focus.

Posted October 27, 2014

The unfortunate news of the Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.

Posted October 24, 2014

The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market.

Posted October 23, 2014

In fact, it's really pretty rare for investors to maintain any sort of focus on the current quarter in setting stock prices for any sustained period of time.

Posted October 22, 2014

Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year?

Posted October 17, 2014

This may surprise a lot of people, mainly because it stands in such contrast to the work product of their journalistic peers, but a lot of financial reporting is pretty well done.wall

Posted October 16, 2014

Something strange is going on with young adults in the U.S. job market.

Posted October 15, 2014

It's wrong to use direct statistical analysis to describe how stock prices behave for any really long period of time.