Political Calculations

Posted May 04, 2016

We have some good news! For the first time since October 2015, the number of U.S. firms that announced dividend cuts during a calendar month dropped below the level where we can be reasonably certain that at least part of the U.S. economy is experiencing significant contraction.

Posted May 03, 2016

"As expected", is the answer to the question "How did the S&P 500 behave during Week 4 of April 2016?"

Posted April 28, 2016

In the first quarter of 2016, the preliminary monthly data for the number and value of new home sales throughout the United States indicates that the growth of the U.S. new home market has stalled out with respect to the previous quarter.

Posted April 27, 2016

Through the end of Fiscal Year 2015, back on 30 September 2015, we estimate that the ratio of the United States' total public debt outstanding to the nation's median household income is approximately 263%.

Posted April 26, 2016

Through Friday, 22 April 2016, the pace at which publicly-traded U.S. companies are cutting their dividends is much higher than what was recorded at the same point of time during the first quarter of 2016.

Posted April 22, 2016

We have been periodically tracking the statistical trends for the number of new jobless claims in the United States, at both the national level and also at the subnational level. Today, we're going to update what we're seeing in the data.

Posted April 19, 2016

It seems like we just talked about the alternative futures for the S&P 500, which is because we did just last Thursday as we explored the decline in stock price volatility our model projects through the second quarter of 2016.

Posted April 15, 2016

On Wednesday, 6 April 2016, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said something that, for once, didn't move stock prices.

Posted April 14, 2016

How much will California's recently passed legislation to raise its minimum wage from its current level of $10.00 per hour to $15.00 per hour by 2021 (or 2022 at the latest) have upon the state's employment levels by age?

Posted April 12, 2016

It seems strange to refer to a trading week that began with Monday, 7 April as "Week 1" of the month of April, but we're stuck with it because we referred to the previous week as "Week 5" of March 2016!

Posted April 11, 2016

If you were to drag a $100 bill through Harvard Yard, there's no telling what fool thing you can get a Harvard professor to sign onto, even if it hurts themselves.

Posted April 08, 2016

Going by the exchange rate adjusted year-over-year growth rate of the value of trade between the two nations, the relative health of the economies of both China and the U.S. would appear to have rebounded in February 2016 as compared to previous months.

Posted April 07, 2016

What does the stalling out of the U.S. new home market mean for the buyers of new homes in the United States?

Posted April 06, 2016

In the first quarter of 2016, 189 U.S. firms announced that they would be cutting their dividend payments to their shareholders, making it the worst quarter for dividend cuts since the first quarter of 2009, which saw 222 firms reduce their dividends as the U.S. stock market reached its bottom during the Great Recession.

Posted April 05, 2016

For the last time, let's recall the prediction we made four weeks ago, back on 7 March 2016, when we explained why were going to discard our standard model's projections of a rough ride for the S&P 500 for the rest of March 2016.

Posted March 31, 2016

Last week, economist Steve Keen went on record to predict that Australia's economy would fall into recession in 2017.

Posted March 30, 2016

The following chart shows the recent past and the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends per share, spanning 2015-Q1 through 2017-Q1.

Posted March 29, 2016

Before we begin, let's recall, as we did last week and the week before, what it was that we said three weeks ago in comparing what our S&P 500 forecasting model was projecting would be the apparent trajectory of stock prices for March 2016 versus what we predicted that they actually would follow.

Posted March 25, 2016

It is looking more and more like the market for new homes in the U.S. is did indeed reached a top in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Posted March 24, 2016

Did you know that there was no open-market price for silver in the United States in the period from 2 April 1792 until 12 February 1873?

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