Peter Morici
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of September 1
September 1
Labor Day
September 2
Markit PMI Manufacturing Index - August 57.5 55.8 57.8
ISM (Mfg) - August 57.1 57.1 56.8
ISM Prices 58.0 59.5 58.0
Construction Spending - July 0.8% -1.8 0.9
September 3
Auto Sales* - August 16.60M 16.48 16.60
Car Sales 8.00 8.00
Truck Sales 8.60 8.49
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
ADP Employment Report - August 120K 218 223
Factory Orders - June 11.1% 1.6 10.9
Durable Goods Orders
Nondurable Goods Orders
September 4
Initial Unemployment Claims 302K 298 300
International Trade - July -$43.0B -41.5 -42.3
Productivity - Q2 (r) 2.5% 2.5 2.4
Unit Labor Costs 0.6 0.6 0.5
ISM Services - August 57.2 58.7 57.5
September 5
Nonfarm Payrolls - August 220K 209 230
Private 210 198 220
Core Private* 170 164
Manufacturing 15 28 20
Unemployment 6.1% 6.2 6.1
Average Workweek 34.5Hr 34.5 34.5
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2 0.2
*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services
Week of September 8
September 8
Consumer Credit - July $17.2B 17.3 17.2
September 9
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August 95.7 95.7
JOLTS - July 4.721 4.671
September 10
Wholesale Inventories - July 0.4% 0.3 0.4
September 11
Treasury Budget - August -$106B -94.6
September 12
Retail Sales - August 0.3% 0.0 0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.3 0.1 0.3
Export Prices -August -0.1% 0.0 -0.1
Import Prices -0.8 -0.2 -0.4
Business Inventories - July 0.4 0.4 0.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p) 83.5 82.5
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.


Peter Morici

Professor Peter Morici is a recognized expert on economic policy and international economics. He has lectured and offered executive programs at more than 100 institutions including Columbia University, the Harvard Business School and Oxford University.