Night Watch

Posted June 19, 2013

The Russian leadership has been very clear in communicating that its support for Syria is in part payback for NATO's intervention in Libya.

Posted June 18, 2013

The purpose of this proposal for talks is to achieve by implication, if not by direct engagement, US recognition of North Korea as a nuclear armed power. That explains the open-ended nature of the offer-any topic, any place, any time, without conditions.

Posted June 16, 2013

The timing suggests that the US announcement that it will send arms to some Sunni rebel groups might have accelerated the start date of the offensive by a few days.

Posted June 14, 2013

North Korea has not broadcast the cancellation of the talks to its own population. That probably explains its extension of another invitation to cooperate in its domestic propaganda. The difference in this offer is a lack of mutuality.

Posted June 13, 2013

This looks like a set up. Yesterday item four in the North's press release cited agreement that a ministry-level official would lead each delegation. The North clearly reneged on that commitment.

Posted June 12, 2013

South Korea and North Korea agreed on 10 June to hold high-level talks in Seoul on 12 and 13 June, according to an official in South Korea's Ministry of Unification. They reached agreement after 17 hours of working-level talks at Panmunjom.

Posted June 08, 2013

Responding to North Korea's proposal to hold talks, South Korea suggested the countries hold a ministerial-level dialogue next week in Seoul and called on the North to reopen communications channels.

Posted June 07, 2013

The statement represents a comprehensive switch in tactics to a charm offensive. North Korea does not consider this proposal to represent a policy change. But it is and it is enormous.

Posted June 06, 2013

Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc thanked the main opposition parties because their leaders yesterday and today called on the protestors to channel their demands through elections, instead of civil disorder.

Posted June 05, 2013

The numbers of Hizballah fighters in Syria are significant for a non-state militia force. However, the numbers are not large relative to the impact Hizballah fighters have had in changing the momentum of the fight in the government's favor.

Posted June 04, 2013

The root of the unrest is the growing lack of empowerment for secular interests and people who are less devout Muslims. Turkish youths and city dwellers who support the protests are railing against the actions of a legitimately elected president and parliament.

Posted June 03, 2013

The root of the unrest is the growing lack of empowerment for secular interests and people who are less devout Muslims.

Posted June 01, 2013

Israeli analysts accused Asad of lying about the delivery of S-300 missiles. Unnamed US officials said there was no evidence of a recent missile delivery. If they show up, some intelligence services are going to be embarrassed.

Posted May 31, 2013

The facts are that the North cannot negotiate denuclearization without changing its law and the party line. Until those change, nuclear talks will be non-substantive

Posted May 30, 2013

The Russian statements are aimed at the US and NATO. Various Russian leaders have declared Russia will not allow Syria to go the path of Libya, in which NATO intervention began with a no-fly zone.

Posted May 26, 2013

apture of al-Qusayr by government forces cuts the main supply route to Homs, which is the next target in the government/Hizballah offensive. Loss of Homs would eviscerate the uprising.

Posted May 25, 2013

The message was that North Korea should follow China's development model and stop making trouble.

Posted May 24, 2013

The concluding paragraph of the Chinese statement is a strong indicator that the conversation was probably "heated", not just "warm." The next round of appointments Choe makes or does not make will provide important insights as to the state of China's relations with North Korea.

Posted May 23, 2013

This is another of the many annoyances with which the Chinese and South Koreans cope. In many of its external economic transactions, North Korea acts as a rogue and criminal enterprise.

Posted May 22, 2013

Japanese government advisor Iijima had meetings with senior North Korean officials, including Kim Yong Nam. Kim is Chairman of the presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly and acts as the head of state for protocol purposes.