Mike Shedlock

Initial Reaction

Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 175,000 vs. a Bloomberg consensus expectation of 150,000.

The employment change for December 2013 was revised up by 9,000 (from +75,000 to +84,000), and the employment change for January 2014 was revised up by 16,000 (from +113,000 to +129,000). The overall effect was a modest two-month upward revision of +25,000.

Beneath the surface, things look worse again. The household survey shows a gain of employment of only 42,000 while unemployment rose by 223,000.

February BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +175,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +42,000 - Household Survey
  • Unemployment: +223,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -71,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -138,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 6.7% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 12.6% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +170,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +264,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: -94,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 at 63.0 - Household Survey

Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
  • In the past year the population rose by 2,257,000.
  • In the last year the labor force fell by 213,000.
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,253,000
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,044,000 (an average of 170,333 a month)

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.

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