Mike Shedlock

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 175,000 a reasonably good but not spectacular print. The bright spot was involuntary part-time employment only rose by 26,000 so most of the jobs were (for a change) full-time jobs.

The civilian labor force rose by 420,000 for a change, enough to raise the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points to 7.6%.

The Participation Rate rose 0.1 to 63.4%, just off the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

Obamacare Effect

Given there was not a huge jump in part-time employment this month, the bulk of the Obamacare effect of employers reducing hours from 32 to 25 (and hiring hundreds of thousands of new employees to make up the hours) may have mostly played out.

Nonetheless, expect lingering effects because any new business will be affected, as will businesses seeking to expand. See personal anecdotes at the end of this post for additional discussion.

May BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Payrolls +175,000 - Establishment Survey
  • US Employment +319,000 - Household Survey
  • US Unemployment +101,000 - Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +26,000 - Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work -12,000 - Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate +0.1 - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment -0.1 to 13.8% - Household Survey
  • The Civilian Labor Force +420,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force -231,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate +0.1 at 63.4 - Household Survey

Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.

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