Quick Notes About the "Falling" Unemployment Rate
- In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,565,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,145,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,420,000.
- In January, the Civilian Labor Force rose by 508,000.
- In January, those "Not in Labor Force" rose by an amazing 1,177,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
- Participation Rate fell .3 to 63.7%, taking out a 1984 low
- Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Some of those labor force numbers are due to annual revisions. However, the point remains: People are dropping out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low.
Jobs Report at a Glance
Here is an overview of today's release.
- US Payrolls +243,000 - Establishment Survey
- US Unemployment Rate Declined .2 - Household Survey
- Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was +.1 to 34.4 hours
- The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged higher 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in November.
- Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents to $23.24
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
January 2012 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) January 2012 Employment Report
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted
Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.