Mike Shedlock

Posted February 11, 2016

Fed chair Janet Yellen keeps repeating the mantra inflation expectations are well anchored.

Posted February 10, 2016

Oil dipped below $30 again today. As usual dip buyers or shorts covering pushed the price positive for a while. This time, however, the bounce did not last even one day. Oil is flirting with $29 and Junk Energy-Bond Costs Soar.

Posted February 09, 2016

A bloodbath that stated in Europe quickly spilled over into the the US markets today. European bank shares were especially hard hit with Deutsche Bank leading the way.

Posted February 08, 2016

A debate between the inflation doves and hawks in the ECB is underway. We already know the winner: In a speech last week on the Risks of Low Inflation, ECB president Mario Draghi effectively said damn the side effects, more stimulus is coming.

Posted February 05, 2016

Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.

Posted February 02, 2016

Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today's anemic report.

Posted February 01, 2016

China's manufacturing extended its long slump according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI.

Posted January 29, 2016

The future of farming has arrived. It's vertical, soilless, and run by robots.

Posted January 28, 2016

December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate.

Posted January 26, 2016

Those expecting a bounce in manufacturing following an alleged improvement in the Philadelphia Region were mistaken.

Posted January 20, 2016

Traders are increasingly betting that Japanese prime minister Shinz Abe will not follow through on his plans to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation in Japan (or that he has already done enough and won't do any more).

Posted January 19, 2016

How overoptimistic are Wall Street forecasts year in and year out?

Posted January 15, 2016

Export and import prices continued the collapse today according to the latest BLS Data. Export prices fell 1.1%, over double the Econoday consensus estimate of -0.5% and also lower then the lowest economist's forecast of -0.8%. Import prices sank 1.2% less than the consensus estimate of -1.4%.

Posted January 14, 2016

The consumer conference board says Consumer Confidence Index Improves in December.

Posted January 12, 2016

Money parked at the ECB at a negative rate of 0.3% hit a new high at the beginning of 2016.

Posted January 08, 2016

In a Bloomberg TV Interview, Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the state of the global economy.

Posted January 07, 2016

Currency trends suggest another yuan devaluation is coming up. Specifically, the gap between the mainland China yuan (renminbi) to the US dollar, vs. the offshore floating rate of the yuan to the US dollar is now at a record high.

Posted January 06, 2016

US car sales are going to have a record year in 2015, clearly one of the bright spots in the US economy. Judging from revisions in construction spending, perhaps the only bright spot left besides very lagging jobs data.

Posted January 05, 2016

When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good to be true, and that downward revisions were coming.

Posted January 01, 2016

I have a watchful eye on initial unemployment claims. They have been trending higher (unexpectedly of course) since mid-October.

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