Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015.
Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today's anemic report.
China's manufacturing extended its long slump according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI.
The future of farming has arrived. It's vertical, soilless, and run by robots.
December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate.
Those expecting a bounce in manufacturing following an alleged improvement in the Philadelphia Region were mistaken.
Traders are increasingly betting that Japanese prime minister Shinz Abe will not follow through on his plans to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation in Japan (or that he has already done enough and won't do any more).
How overoptimistic are Wall Street forecasts year in and year out?
Export and import prices continued the collapse today according to the latest BLS Data. Export prices fell 1.1%, over double the Econoday consensus estimate of -0.5% and also lower then the lowest economist's forecast of -0.8%. Import prices sank 1.2% less than the consensus estimate of -1.4%.
The consumer conference board says Consumer Confidence Index Improves in December.
Money parked at the ECB at a negative rate of 0.3% hit a new high at the beginning of 2016.
In a Bloomberg TV Interview, Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the state of the global economy.
Currency trends suggest another yuan devaluation is coming up. Specifically, the gap between the mainland China yuan (renminbi) to the US dollar, vs. the offshore floating rate of the yuan to the US dollar is now at a record high.
US car sales are going to have a record year in 2015, clearly one of the bright spots in the US economy. Judging from revisions in construction spending, perhaps the only bright spot left besides very lagging jobs data.
When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good to be true, and that downward revisions were coming.
I have a watchful eye on initial unemployment claims. They have been trending higher (unexpectedly of course) since mid-October.
In Misguided Plans to Fix the Fed Part 1: Bernie Sanders I proposed abolishing the Fed. That's something I have stated many times over the past decade.
Several readers sent emails prior to the Fed hike on December 16 that the stock market would collapse immediately following a rate hike.
Illinois' unfunded liabilities have risen ten out of the last eleven years. The only exception was 2011. This was despite massive rallies in financial markets every year since 2009.
In the wake of recent data, the 4th quarter GDPNow Forecast dipped to 1.3% from 1.9% on December 16.