John Ransom

Democrats hoping for some political relief from the economy had better change their dreams.

An astonishing 30% of Americans think the country is on the right track with 62% saying the country is going in the wrong direction, according to an average by RealClearPolitics.

I don’t know who that 30% is, but to their loved ones I can only tell you there are medications that can help treat those delusions without many side effects. And the good news is that there are medications with LOTS of side effects that can help treat those delusions as well-- you know, if you’re interested in getting even with them a little bit.

These right track/wrong track numbers are just reflective of a deeper trend of dissatisfaction amongst Americans who care about things like their family, their job, their paycheck, their mortgage, their rent—you know the day-to-day things a rich author like Obama doesn’t give any thought to.

Americans have reason to be worried.

A big miss on private payroll estimates, followed by rising unemployment claims, tells a very different story than the 4% GDP growth that economists were bragging about in the first quarter.

Despite signs that the economy was in trouble in the first quarter, economists were saying “never mind, things are really beginning to heat up.”

Most economists were revising their GDP estimates upwards, with some even making the claim that GDP growth for 2014 will come in at about 4% annually.

Instead, Quarter One 2014 came in at a 1% contraction, making it the worse quarter since the first quarter of 2011.

People need to remember that most of the economists polled for survey estimates are folks who work for financial services firms that make a living on convincing you that the market will never go down, the economy is never bad, and mostly what you need to do is buy now.

People also need to remember that those same financial service firms that have that sell-side bias, sponsor most shows in the money media -- at CNBC and Bloomberg, for example.

When you add these financial numbers to the double-digit discrepancy in Obama’s job approval rating, things look pretty bleak for Democrats. Obama is more unpopular today that he’s been at any time during his presidency. And it’s likely to get worse not better.

Because the economy isn’t getting better.

It’s getting worse.

Growth may pick up, but if it does we’ll have an inflation problem.

John Ransom

John Ransom’s writings on politics and finance have appeared in the Los Angeles Business Journal, the Colorado Statesman, Pajamas Media and Registered Rep Magazine amongst others. Until 9/11, Ransom worked primarily in finance as an investment executive for NYSE member firm Raymond James and Associates, JW Charles and as a new business development executive at Mutual Service Corporation. He lives in San Diego. You can follow him on twitter @bamransom.

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