George Friedman
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Fighters from the Caucasus Emirate insurgent group killed numerous Russian servicemen in fighting from Feb. 12 to Feb. 17 in the Russian Caucasus republics of Chechnya and Dagestan. Since 2010, Dagestan has become a more popular place of operations for Caucasus militants, but Russia's use of Chechen fighters in counterinsurgency operations in Dagestan could prompt a backlash.

Analysis

On Feb. 17, Russian media reported that 13 Russian servicemen were killed and 20 were wounded during five days of fighting in Chechnya's Nozhai-Yurt district and Dagestan's Kazbek district, in the republics' forested border area. The Russians were fighting three groups -- reportedly numbering in the dozens -- of Caucasus Emirate (CE) fighters. The attacks led to joint Russian, Chechen and Dagestani anti-militant operations.

Dagestan, the center of gravity for Caucasus militancy since early- to mid-2010, will need to be the focus of anti-militant efforts. However, the presence and possible use of Chechen forces in Dagestan could create a backlash because of the republics' historical enmity.

The fighting began Feb. 13 when an armed group and a village police patrol clashed in the forest near the village of Vedeno, Chechnya, near the Dagestani border. The next day, Russian Interior Ministry troops and Chechen forces cordoned the area and launched a search. Fighting continued Feb. 15-16 in the same area, and most of the nine killed and six injured Russian servicemen on those days were "elite special forces" personnel, according to Interfax. A clash also took place in Mutsalaul, Dagestan, where two militants were reportedly killed. In clashes on Feb. 17, two more Russian servicemen were killed and one was injured. Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov claimed Feb. 17 that 20 militants were killed.

The violence is unusual, both because of the high number of Russian losses and because the casualties were not caused by a well-placed improvised explosive device but by continuous fighting. Although it could be attributed to heavy snow and the mountainous forest-covered terrain, the length of the anti-militant operation -- as well as its cross-border nature -- could indicate increased capabilities among the CE fighters despite the group's steady loss of leadership, including the Feb. 10 death of Dagestan "Governor" and "Emir" of the CE Dagestani Front, Ibragimkhalil Daudov, or "Emir Saleh."

The CE -- a loosely organized trans-regional insurgent group -- launched more than 60 percent of its attacks and other violence in 2011 in Dagestan. The group likely considers Dagestan an attractive venue because the same anti-militant measures Russia took in Chechnya have not been effective in Dagestan.

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George Friedman

George Friedman is the CEO and chief intelligence officer of Stratfor, a private intelligence company located in Austin, TX.