George Friedman

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Australia's Strategy

By George Friedman (May 24, 2012)

Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, ranked in the top 10 in gross domestic product per capita. It is one of the most isolated major countries... more

France's Strategy

By George Friedman (May 16, 2012)

New political leaders do not invent new national strategies. Rather, they adapt enduring national strategies to the moment. On Tuesday, Francois Hollande will be... more

Britain's Strategy

By George Friedman (May 10, 2012)

Britain controlled about one-fourth of the Earth's land surface and one-fifth of the world's population in 1939. Fifty years later, its holdings outside the British... more

Putin's Evolving Strategy in Europe

By George Friedman (May 09, 2012)

This week, Vladimir Putin was sworn in for a third term as Russian president. Putin's return to the presidency was not unexpected; he was never really unseated as... more

Russia's Strategy

By George Friedman (Apr 25, 2012)

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 reversed a process that had been under way since the Russian Empire's emergence in the 17th century. It was ultimately to... more

Turkey's Strategy

By George Friedman (Apr 20, 2012)

Turkey is re-emerging as a significant regional power. In some sense, it is in the process of returning to its position prior to World War I when it was the seat of... more

Iran's Strategy

By George Friedman (Apr 11, 2012)

For centuries, the dilemma facing Iran (and before it, Persia) has been guaranteeing national survival and autonomy in the face of stronger regional powers like... more

Israel's New Strategic Environment

By George Friedman (Apr 07, 2012)

Israel is now entering its third strategic environment. The constant threat of state-on-state war defined the first, which lasted from the founding of the Jewish... more

The United States in Korea: A Strategy of Inertia

By George Friedman (Mar 31, 2012)

After U.S. President Barack Obama visited the Korean Demilitarized Zone on March 25 during his trip to South Korea for a nuclear security summit, he made the... more

Afghanistan and the Long War

By George Friedman (Mar 20, 2012)

The war in Afghanistan has been under way for more than 10 years. It has not been the only war fought during this time; for seven of those years another, larger war... more

The State of the World: Germany's Strategy

By George Friedman (Mar 18, 2012)

The idea of Germany having an independent national strategy runs counter to everything that Germany has wanted to be since World War II and everything the world has wanted... more

The Geopolitics of France: Maintaining Its Influence in a Changing Europe

By George Friedman (Mar 12, 2012)

Geographically, the continent of Europe is a busy place. It is riddled with features that impede the formation of any large political entity. Mountain ranges inhibit trade... more

Spring Break in Mexico: Travel and Security Risks

By George Friedman (Mar 11, 2012)

Every year between January and March, U.S. college administrations remind their students to exercise caution while on spring break. These well-meaning guidelines often go... more

The State of the World: Assessing China's Strategy

By George Friedman (Mar 06, 2012)

Simply put, China has three core strategic interests. Paramount among them is the maintenance of domestic security. Historically, when China involves itself in global trade,... more

Mexico Security Memo: Degrading Security in Puerto Vallarta

By George Friedman (Mar 05, 2012)

Twenty-two tourists were robbed at gunpoint Feb. 23 in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, while returning to their cruise ship from a nature preserve as part of planned... more

Iran's Conservatives Grapple for Power

By George Friedman (Mar 04, 2012)

Iran's parliamentary elections are scheduled for March 2. With most of the reformist politicians banned from participating, the elections are shaping up to be a competition... more

China: Reform in a Resilient Political System

By George Friedman (Mar 01, 2012)

A spate of recent articles in Chinese state-run media has raised speculation that the country's leadership may address the issue of political reform. Though the issue is by... more

The State of the World: Explaining U.S. Strategy

By George Friedman (Feb 29, 2012)

The fall of the Soviet Union ended the European epoch, the period in which European power dominated the world. It left the United States as the only global power, something... more

Shooting in Afghan Interior Ministry Occurs at a Crucial Time

By George Friedman (Feb 27, 2012)

Two NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) officers were killed Feb. 25 inside the Afghan Interior Ministry in Kabul. Details are limited, but reports suggest... more

The State of the World: A Framework

By George Friedman (Feb 22, 2012)

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a... more

Iran: New Military Exercises, But No New Threat

By George Friedman (Feb 21, 2012)

The Iranian air force announced Feb. 20 that it had begun a four-day drill covering a zone of 190,000 square kilometers (73,300 square miles) in southern Iran. The exercises,... more

Russia: Caucasus Emirate Militants Not Defeated Yet

By George Friedman (Feb 20, 2012)

Fighters from the Caucasus Emirate insurgent group killed numerous Russian servicemen in fighting from Feb. 12 to Feb. 17 in the Russian Caucasus republics of Chechnya and... more

Iran's Deterrence Strategy in the Strait of Hormuz

By George Friedman (Feb 19, 2012)

Iranian naval exercises scheduled for February underscore a strategy that is both political and military: To deter an attack, Iran must enhance the perception that it... more

Meth in Mexico: A Turning Point in the Drug War?

By George Friedman (Feb 17, 2012)

By Ben West Mexican authorities announced Feb. 8 the largest seizure of methamphetamine in Mexican history -- and possibly the largest ever anywhere -- on a ranch outside of... more

Jihadist Opportunities in Syria

By George Friedman (Feb 16, 2012)

By Kamran Bokhari In an eight-minute video clip titled "Onward, Lions of Syria" disseminated on the Internet Feb. 12, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri expressed al Qaeda's... more

The Next Stage of Russia's Resurgence: The Caucasus States

By George Friedman (Feb 13, 2012)

The former Soviet republics in the Caucasus -- Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan -- have very different attitudes toward Russia's resurgence. Armenia depends on Russia for its... more

Afghanistan: Moving Toward a Distant Endgame

By George Friedman (Feb 08, 2012)

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta suggested last week that the United States could wrap up combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2013, well before the longstanding... more

Russia and the United States: Pushing Tensions to the Limit?

By George Friedman (Feb 07, 2012)

As Russia and the United States prepare for their respective presidential elections, tensions between the countries are growing. The central point of contention is U.S.... more

Russia's Shifting Political Landscape, Part 4: Putin's Challenges

By George Friedman (Feb 06, 2012)

Although Russian leader Vladimir Putin likely will retain control after the March presidential election, he has recognized that the Russian political landscape has shifted... more

Russia's Shifting Political Landscape, Part 3: Rising Anti-Kremlin Movements

By George Friedman (Feb 05, 2012)

The second large trend reshaping Russia's political landscape is the strengthening of numerous movements opposed to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin or the Kremlin. The... more

Russia's Shifting Political Landscape, Part 2: Breakdown of the Kremlin Clans

By George Friedman (Feb 04, 2012)

One of the issues causing -- and prolonging -- Russia's current political instability is the complete breakdown of the Kremlin's power clans. When Prime Minister Vladimir... more

Russia's Shifting Political Landscape, Part 1: An Overview of Political Changes

By George Friedman (Feb 02, 2012)

Russia's political landscape has been relatively calm and consolidated for the past decade under former President and current Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. However,... more

Germany's Role in Europe and the European Debt Crisis

By George Friedman (Feb 01, 2012)

The German government proposed last week that a European commissioner be appointed to supplant the Greek government. While phrasing the German proposal this way might seem... more

Cooling Rhetoric on Iran

By George Friedman (Jan 26, 2012)

Japan on Thursday became the first country to officially inform Washington that it would seek a waiver from pending U.S. sanctions on foreign institutions... more

Iran Seeks Strategic Accommodation with Washington

By George Friedman (Jan 22, 2012)

By Stratfor U.S. President Barack Obama asked for direct talks with Iran in a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Ali... more

The European Crisis in 2012

By George Friedman (Jan 18, 2012)

For much of the fourth quarter of 2011, it appeared the eurozone was doomed. Debt was piling up for several key states, and those with the ability to assist lacked the... more

Jihadism in 2012

By George Friedman (Jan 17, 2012)

For the past six years, Stratfor has published an annual forecast on al Qaeda and the jihadist movement. Since our first forecast in January 2006, we have focused heavily on... more

Obstacles for Egypt's Islamists After Elections

By George Friedman (Jan 15, 2012)

SummaryEgypt's political factions are awaiting the results of the third round of lower house parliamentary elections, which are very likely to confirm that... more

Washington's Gunboat Diplomacy and the Strait of Hormuz

By George Friedman (Jan 14, 2012)

The arrival of the American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and its escorts in the Middle East on Monday has continued to reverberate in world news... more

The Hack on Stratfor

By George Friedman (Jan 12, 2012)

In early December I received a call from Fred Burton, Stratfor's vice president of intelligence. He told me he had received information indicating our website had been hacked... more