By publication of this column the BLS will have reported the number of jobs created in November and the unemployment rate. Are those numbers dependable? Not if you understand the perverted methodology for calculating the rate, understanding this is a political report more than an economic report.
For example over one million people are about to lose their extended unemployment benefits which would send the unemployment rate plunging when they are no longer counted. Wow what an amazing job of lowering the rate! Great for political propaganda, but not so much for people jobless and losing benefits.
We also learned that an employee at Census decided to make up the number of employed people just in time for the 2012 elections causing the unemployment rate to miraculously fall below 8% in September .
Doesn't that skew all following reports when you start with a false basis?
Regardless ADP estimates 215,000 private sector jobs were created in November. What is it about November and December every year that spikes employment numbers? Oh yes, Christmas and up to 40% of annual retail sales.
Brick and mortar Black Friday sales, held on Thursday and Friday, were reported down by 3% YoY while Cyber Monday increased almost 20% YoY. Did they include health insurance purchases on the Obamacare website? The most ineffective, insecure, costly site ever constructed by a crony Solyndra type firm? The 'free market' at work?
Guess retailers add employees just as trees shed their leaves every year about this time, but you should consider this a sign of growth and positive momentum in the labor force. The number of Santa Claus jobs are up 300% compared to the number of Santa jobs this past July. The Obama administration is studying this phenomena for clues on how to increase employment in other job categories.
Once again jobs will be key to housing sales. Will President Obama's attack on income inequality create good full time living wage jobs? Will those jobs offset the millions eliminated or cut to part time due to Obamacare which fuels income inequality? Who to believe? What to believe?
Perhaps these data points on housing may tell us the tale heading into 2014. From ZeroHedge:
"In September new home sales declined from 379K to 354K annualized, or the lowest since early 2012, the subsequent rebound sent New Home Sales to 444K, or a 90K increase, +25.4%, in one month (October) was the biggest month over month jump since May 1980! What was less noted is the prior revisions, with June revised 0.9% lower, July down 4.4%, and August revised by a whopping 10% lower. So what caused the October surge?
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance; Williams Edge Webinar for July 28th, 2014 | John Ransom
Today, at 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance; Williams Edge Webinar for July 25th, 2014 | John Ransom