The unbearable pain of the tech sell-off is working its way into the blue chip names that have thus far held firm during the onslaught. I have been doing this work for almost thirty years, and have seen this over and over, yet it never changes. Part of the problem is that so many investors miss the early part of rebound/rally, and there is no cushion to mentally absorb their losing positions. So selling begets selling, which begets more selling, which gets to the point where one believes that the most innovative companies of the future are going out of business tomorrow.
There are several exogenous factors to the sell-off, including geopolitical activity, slow economic recovery, and valuations concerns.
"I once said, 'We will bury you,' and I got into trouble with it. Of course we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you."
August 24, 1963
Vladimir Putin is running circles around President Obama; this is not an opinion, it is a fact. When the president pats himself on the back for getting singles and doubles with his foreign policy, I just cringe. Then he says they have had occasional homeruns, at which I start to cry. You have got to be kidding me, right? The idea of a re-set button and backroom promises with Russia only emboldens Putin's ambitions of bringing back to the USSR, its former glory. (This was his dissertation in college).
I have no idea if Putin will invade the rest of Ukraine, although it would seem to be a dumb move economically. The strategic need to absorb Crimea is obvious, and when his guy had to flee, maybe there was no choice. I know many smart people who believe Putin is hell-bent on slowing NATO's move into the former members of the Soviet Empire. However, it is unlikely that this would happen without a fight, which would force America to step up, whether we like it or not.
Therefore, I have little confidence in President Obama, or John Kerry, and can only think of the old Sting song, which asks, "If the Russians love their children, too."
Next, are those investors who think America itself has reached an inflection point, where socialism and its tendencies have won the day: I flat out disagree! Yes, the campaign is non-stop, but the results of these redistributionist ideas and policies have failed in practice across the nation. Of course, the challenge is for people to understand why this is a flaccid recovery, instead of buying into the notion that the rich must pay even more to fix the economy.
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