Today's ADP Employment Report showed an increase in Private Payrolls coming in at 135,000 vs. last month's downwardly revised 113,000 (from 119K). While that represents a nice month over month increase, the 135K fell considerably short of the 171,000 consensus.
Digging into the numbers, ADP reports that 58,000 of the new jobs came from small business. Approximately 39,000 came from medium-sized businesses. And the other (approximate) 39,000 came from large businesses. Not surprisingly, Finance and Construction led the way with 7,000 and 5,000 new jobs respectively, while Manufacturing lost 6,000.
Stocks were weaker in pre-market trading to begin with. And didn't really flinch when the ADP numbers came out. In fact, at the time of this writing, they're coming off of their pre-market lows. But the lower than expected reading was not the supportive report market watchers were hoping for.
Granted, ADP has been coming in lower than what the official government numbers have been reporting on private payrolls. For example, last month, ADP forecast 119,000 while the BLS report showed 176,000. So hopefully, we'll see the same favorable disparity in Friday's official tally. Expectations for the private sector are calling for 178,000. That's a wider spread than last month. Hopefully the jobs market is up to the task. But today's reading was a bit disappointing compared to expectations.
Are you expecting Friday's Employment numbers to beat ADP's estimate of 135,000?
Better yet, are you expecting Friday's numbers to beat its own expectations of 176,000?
And is any of this influencing your trading at the moment?
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