Not much has changed over the last two weeks with respect to COVID trends in Arizona. Which is very good news.
That's because of what didn't happen after Arizona's economy fully reopened, which we mark from the lifting of capacity limits on businesses such as bars, restaurants, gyms, and others that would be considered prime territory for spreading coronavirus infections. What didn't happen is significant, because instead of developing a rising trend for COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, ICU bed usage, and deaths as it did after its first reopening attempt following its first wave of COVID-19, Arizona has instead experienced steady, relatively flat levels for all these measures. What had looked like the potential stalling of a previous trend of improvement is really demonstrating the benefits of the widespread deployment of Operation Warp Speed's vaccines in Arizona. The protections offered by the vaccines are enabling the gains of improvement to be sustained. Even as the kind of activities that would have previously resulted in the reversal of a positive trend for coronavirus infections have expanded.
That's evident in the latest updates to the four charts tracking the trends for each of these measures based on Arizona's high quality data for the numbers of new cases by test sample collection date, hospitalizations by date of admission, deaths by date as recorded on death certificates, and ICU bed usage.
Since our last update, the trend for cases has continued moving sideways, with the trends for both hospitalizations and ICU bed usage now following suit. It will take a little more time to see if the dataset for deaths attributed to COVID-19 will follow the same pattern, but the early indicators are that it will.
The next time we look at Arizona's high quality COVID-19 data, we'll be looking to confirm the answer to a very different question.
Previously on Political Calculations
Here is our previous coverage of Arizona's experience with the coronavirus pandemic, presented in reverse chronological order.
- Improving COVID Trends Bottom and Flatline in Arizona
- Surge of Migrants, Lifting of Business Capacity Limits Change Arizona COVID Trends
- COVID-19 in Retreat in Arizona With Vaccines Gaining Traction
- The Ebb and Flow of COVID-19 in Arizona's ICUs
- Arizona's Plunging COVID-19 Caseloads and the Vaccines
- Arizona Enters Downward Trend for COVID-19 After Second Peak
- Arizona Passes Second COVID-19 Peak
- A Tale of Two States and the Coronavirus
- COVID-19 Questions, Answers, and Lessons Learned from Arizona
- The Deadly Intersection of Anti-Police Protests and COVID-19
- 2020 Campaign Events Drive Surge in Arizona COVID Cases
- Arizona Arrives at Critical Junction for Coronavirus Cases
- Arizona To Soon Reach A Critical Junction For COVID-19
- Getting More Than Care from Arizona's COVID ICU Beds
- Arizona's Decentralized Approach to Beating COVID
- Going Back to School with COVID-19
- Arizona Turns Second Corner Toward Crushing Coronavirus
- Arizona's Coronavirus Crest in Rear View Mirror
- The Coronavirus Turns a Corner in Arizona
- A Delayed First Wave Crests in the U.S. and a Second COVID-19 Wave Arrives
- The Coronavirus in Arizona
- A Closer Look at COVID-19 Deaths in Arizona
- The New Epicenter of COVID-19 in the U.S.
- How Long Does a Serious COVID Infection Typically Last?
- How Deadly is the COVID-19 Coronavirus?
- Governor Cuomo and the Coronavirus Models
- How Do False Test Outcomes Affect Estimates of the True Incidence of Coronavirus Infections?
- How Fast Could China's Coronavirus Spread?
We've continued following Arizona's experience during the coronavirus pandemic because the state's Department of Health Services makes detailed, high quality time series data available, which makes it easy to apply the back calculation method to identify the timing and events that caused changes in the state's COVID-19 trends. This section links that that resource and many of the others we've found useful throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
Arizona Department of Health Services. COVID-19 Data Dashboard: Vaccine Administration. [Online Database]. Accessed 20 April 2021.
Stephen A. Lauer, Kyra H. Grantz, Qifang Bi, Forrest K. Jones, Qulu Zheng, Hannah R. Meredith, Andrew S. Azman, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine, 5 May 2020. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-0504.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. [PDF Document]. Updated 10 September 2020.
More or Less: Behind the Stats. Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown. Interview with Kit Yates discussing back calculation. BBC Radio 4. [Podcast: 8:18 to 14:07]. 29 April 2020.