Spring 2019 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

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Posted: May 21, 2019 10:25 AM

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 through the end of 2019 has continued to deteriorate since our previous edition, where the projected trailing year earnings per share for the index in December 2019 has fallen to $150.96 per share from the $154.67 forecast three months earlier.

A more cynical interpretation of the politics involved is that the tax cuts bought the U.S. economy and stock market the space needed to accommodate the bipartisan-supported trade war, which is now being spent down.

It's a good thing that stock prices track along with expected future dividends per share and not expected future earnings per share, otherwise investors would already be in a world of hurt. If expected future dividends start significantly eroding, watch out below.