This Week In Data: Houses, Factories, And Automobiles

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Posted: Oct 29, 2018 11:44 AM
This Week In Data: Houses, Factories, And Automobiles

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 29




October 30




Personal Income - September

0.4%

0.3

0.4





Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

28.1

28.1

28.0





October 30




S&P Case/Shiller Index - August




Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3


Twenty City M/M - SA

0.0

0.1

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.9

6.0





Consumer Confidence

136.5

138.4

136.0





October 31




ADP Employment Report - October

195K

230.0

180





Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.8%

0.6

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.8






Chicago PMI

60.2

60.4

60.0





November 1




Initial Unemployment Claims

212K

215

212





Productivity - Q3 (p)

2.2%

2.9

2,2

Unit Labor Costs

1.3

-1.0

1.2





PMI Manufacturing Index - October

55.9

55.9

55.9

ISM (Mfg) - October

59.3

59.8

59.1

Construction Spending - September

0.3%

0.3






November 2




Auto Sales* - September

17.2M

17.4

17.2

Car Sales

5.2

5.2


Truck Sales

12.0

12.2


*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence








Nonfarm Payrolls - October

200K

134

190

Private

195

121

181

Core Private*




Manufacturing

22

18

14

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

3.7

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services 






International Trade - September

-$53.6B

-53.2

53.4





Factory Orders - September

0.5%

2.3

0.4

Durable Goods Orders 

0.8



Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.2

0.2






Week of November 5




November 5




PMI Services Index

54.9

54.7


ISM Services - October

60.6

61.6






November 7




Consumer Credit - September

$17.0B

20.1

17.0





November 8




FMOC

2.125%

2.125






November 9




Producer Price Index - October

0.2%

0.2

0.2

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.4

0.2





Wholesale Inventories - September


0.3


Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

98.0

98.6