This Week In Data: Budget Surplus And Higher Inflation?

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Posted: Oct 08, 2018 9:06 AM

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 8




October 9




NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - September

108.8

108.8

108.0





October 10




Producer Price Index - September

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1

0.2





Wholesale Inventories - August

0.8%

0.8

0.8





October 11




Initial Unemployment Claims

207K

207

210





Consumer Price Index - September

0,2%

0.2

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2





Treasury Budget - September

$62.0

-214.1

62.0





October 12




Export Prices - September

-0.1%

-0.1

0.2

Import Prices

0.2

-0.1

0.3





Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)

99.5

100.1

99.0





Week of October 15




October 15




Retail Sales - September

0.5%

0.1

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.3

0.4





NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.0

19.25

Business Inventories - August

0.6%

0.6

0.5





October 16




Industrial Production - August

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

78.1

Manufacturing

0.3

0.2

0.3





NAHB Index

67

67

67





October 17




Housing Starts - September

1.230M

1.282

1.237

Building Permits

1.285

1.229

1.280





October 18




Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

22.9

20.0

Leading Indicators 

0.4%

0.4

0.5





October 19




Existing Home Sales - September

5.38M

5.340

5.35