This Week In Data: Manufacturing, Trade, And Jobs

|
Posted: Oct 01, 2018 12:01 PM
This Week In Data: Manufacturing, Trade, And Jobs

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 1




October 1




ISM (Mfg) - Sept

59.8

61.3

59.9

Construction Spending - August

0.5%

0.1

0.5





October 2




Auto Sales* - September

16.90M

16.72

16.78

Car Sales

5.2

5.14


Truck Sales

11.7

11.58


*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence








October 3




ADP Employment Report - September 

195K

163

177

ISM Services - September

58.0

58.5

58.0





October 4




Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

214

210





Factory Orders - August

2.4%

-0.8

2.0

Durable Goods Orders 

4.5

-1.7


Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.3

0.2






October 5




Nonfarm Payrolls - September

195K

201

180

Private

190

204

171

Manufacturing

10

-3

10

Unemployment

3.9%

3.9

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

0.3





International Trade - August

-$54.0B

-50.1

-53.6

Consumer Credit - August

$15.5B

16.6

15.0





Week of October 8




October 9




October 10




Producer Price Index - September

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1






Wholesale Inventories - August

0.8

0.8

0.6





October 11




Initial Unemployment Claims








Consumer Price Index - September

0.20%

0.2

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2





Treasury Budget - September

$93.5B

-214.1






October 12




Export Prices - September

-0.1%

-0.1

0.2

Import Prices

0.1

-0.1

0.1





Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)

99.0

100.1

99.0