This Week in Data: Final Spring GDP, Trump Boom For Real?

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Posted: Sep 24, 2018 9:27 AM
This Week in Data: Final Spring GDP, Trump Boom For Real?

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.





Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus


Week of September 24





September 25





Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

0.20

0.13

0.20


Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

29.0

30.9

31.2







September 25





S&P Case/Shiller Index - July





Twenty City M/M

0.5%

0.5

0.5


Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.1

0.1


Twenty City Y/Y

6.3

6.3

6.3


Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA










FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.3%

0.2

0.3


Consumer Confidence - September

131.7

133.4

131.7


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

19

24

20







September 26





New Home Sales - August

630K

627

630


 ,

2.125%

1.875

2.125







September 27





Initial Unemployment Claims

305K

201

210







GDP - Q2

4.2%

4.2

4.3


GDP Implicit Price Deflator

3.0

3.0

3.0







International Trade in Goods - August

-72.0

-72.2

-70.8


Wholesale Inventories - August (p)

0.3%

0.6

0.2







Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

106.2

106.2

106.4







September 28





Personal Income - August

0.4%

0.3

0.4


Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.3







Chicago PMI - September

62.0

63.6

62.0


Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

100.8

100.8

108.0







Week of October 1





October 1





ISM (Mfg) - Sept

59.8

61.3








Construction Spending - August

0.5%

0.1








October 2





Auto Sales* - September

16.9M

16.72



Car Sales

5.2

5.14



Truck Sales

11.7

11.58



*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence










October 3





ADP Employment Report - September 

195K

163



ISM Services - September

58.0

58.5








October 4





Factory Orders - August

0.8%

-0.8



Durable Goods Orders 

1.5

-1.7



Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.3

0.2








October 5





Nonfarm Payrolls - September

195K

201



Private

190

204



Manufacturing

10

-3



Unemployment

3.9%

3.9



Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5



Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4








International Trade - August

-$49.7B

-50.1



Consumer Credit - August

$15.0B

16.6