Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | ||||
Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | ||
Week of September 24 | ||||
September 25 | ||||
Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.20 | |
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 29.0 | 30.9 | 31.2 | |
September 25 | ||||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - July | ||||
Twenty City M/M | 0.5% | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
Twenty City Y/Y | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | |
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA | ||||
FHFA Home Price Index - July | 0.3% | 0.2 | 0.3 | |
Consumer Confidence - September | 131.7 | 133.4 | 131.7 | |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 19 | 24 | 20 | |
September 26 | ||||
New Home Sales - August | 630K | 627 | 630 | |
, | 2.125% | 1.875 | 2.125 | |
September 27 | ||||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 305K | 201 | 210 | |
GDP - Q2 | 4.2% | 4.2 | 4.3 | |
GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
International Trade in Goods - August | -72.0 | -72.2 | -70.8 | |
Wholesale Inventories - August (p) | 0.3% | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
Pending Home Sale Index - Aug | 106.2 | 106.2 | 106.4 | |
September 28 | ||||
Personal Income - August | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
Personal Spending | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |
Chicago PMI - September | 62.0 | 63.6 | 62.0 | |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r) | 100.8 | 100.8 | 108.0 | |
Week of October 1 | ||||
October 1 | ||||
ISM (Mfg) - Sept | 59.8 | 61.3 | ||
Construction Spending - August | 0.5% | 0.1 | ||
October 2 | ||||
Auto Sales* - September | 16.9M | 16.72 | ||
Car Sales | 5.2 | 5.14 | ||
Truck Sales | 11.7 | 11.58 | ||
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | ||||
October 3 | ||||
ADP Employment Report - September | 195K | 163 | ||
ISM Services - September | 58.0 | 58.5 | ||
October 4 | ||||
Factory Orders - August | 0.8% | -0.8 | ||
Durable Goods Orders | 1.5 | -1.7 | ||
Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.3 | 0.2 | ||
October 5 | ||||
Nonfarm Payrolls - September | 195K | 201 | ||
Private | 190 | 204 | ||
Manufacturing | 10 | -3 | ||
Unemployment | 3.9% | 3.9 | ||
Average Workweek | 34.5HR | 34.5 | ||
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.4 | ||
International Trade - August | -$49.7B | -50.1 | ||
Consumer Credit - August | $15.0B | 16.6 |