This Week In Data, We’ll See Whether The Trump Tax Cuts Triggered Growth

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Posted: Jul 24, 2018 10:38 AM
This Week In Data, We’ll See Whether The Trump Tax Cuts Triggered Growth

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.





Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus


Week of July 23





July 23





Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

0.30

-0.15

0.23


Existing Home Sales - June

5.520M

5.430

5.450







July 24





FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.4%

0.1

0.4







PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.9

55.4

54.9


PMI Services Flash Index

56.0

56.5

56.4







Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

22

20








July 25





New Home Sales - June

670K

689

669







July 26





Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

207

217


Durable Goods Orders - June

1.5%

-0.4

3.2


International Trade in Goods - June

-$69.7B

-64.8

-67.2


Wholesale Inventories - June (a)

0.3%

0.6

0.3







July 27





GDP - Q2 (a)

4.2%

2.0

4.2







Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

97.1

97.1

97.2







Week of July 30





July 30





Pending Home Sale Index - June

106.6

105.9



Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

29.0

36.5








July 31





Personal Income - June

0.4%

0.4

0.3


Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.4







Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.6%

0.8

0.7


Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.7








S&P Case/Shiller Index - May





Twenty City M/M

0.8%

0.8



Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.2



Twenty City Y/Y

6.4

6.5








Chicago PMI - July

59.3

64.1

61.8


Consumer Confidence - July

127.2

126.4

126.5







August 1





Auto Sales* - July

17.3M

17.47

17.3


Car Sales

5.7

5.46



Truck Sales

11.6

12.01



*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence










ADP Employment Report - July

198K

177

178







ISM (Mfg) - July

59.5

60.2

60.2


Construction Spending - June

0.4%

0.4



FMOC

2.125

1.875








August 2





Factory Orders - June

1.0

0.4

1.0


Durable Goods Orders 

1.5

-0.4



Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.5

1.1








August 3





Nonfarm Payrolls - July

205K

213

195


Private

198

202

189


Manufacturing

22

36

22


Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

3.9


Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.5


Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3


*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services 







International Trade - June

-$48.0B

-43.7

-43.0







ISM Services - July

58.5

59.1

59.0