This Week In Data: Trade Deficit, Manufacturing And Housing Indices, Growth And Inflation Plus My Predictions!

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Posted: Mar 26, 2018 10:02 AM

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 26




March 26




Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February

0.15

0.12

0.5

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

33.0

37.2

27.9





March 27




S&P Case/Shiller Index - January




Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.2

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.6

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

6.2

6.3

6.3





Consumer Confidence Index - March

130.8

130.8

131.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

22

28

22





March 28




GDP - Q4 (f)

2.7%

2.5

2.7

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.3

2.3

2.3





Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.3%

0.8

0.5

International Trade in Goods - January

-$74.0B

-75.3

-74.0

Pending Home Sale Index - February

106.6

104.6

105.6





March 29




Initial Unemployment Claims

225K

229

228





Personal Income - February

0.5%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.3

0.2

0.2





Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

102.0

102.0

102.0





March 30




Chicago PMI - March

63.0

61.9

63.2





Week of April 2




April 2




ISM (Mfg) - March

61.0

60.8


ISM Prices


74.2






Construction Spending - February

0.4%

0.0






April 3




Auto Sales* - March

17.2M

17.1


Car Sales

5.8

5.7


Truck Sales

11.4

11.4


*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence








April 4




ADP Employment Report - March

205K

237


ISM Services - March

59.0

59.5






Factory Orders - February

1.6%

-1.4


Durable Goods Orders 

3.1

-3.6


Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.4

0.8






April 5




International Trade - February

-$55.7

-56.6


Initial Unemployment Claims








April 6




Nonfarm Payrolls - March

215K

313


Private

205

287


Manufacturing

20

31


Unemployment

4.0%

4.1


Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5


Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1






Consumer Credit - February

$15.0B

13.9