Reports This Week On Budget Deficit, Inflation And Small Business And My Predictions

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Posted: Mar 12, 2018 11:27 AM
Reports This Week On Budget Deficit, Inflation And Small Business And My Predictions

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.





Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus


Week of March 12





March 12





Treasury Budget - February

-230.0B

49.2

-216.0







March 13





NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

107.1

106.9

107.1












Consumer Price Index - February

0.2%

0.5

0.2


CPI Core

0.2

0.3

0.2







March 14





Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

0.4

0.2


PPI Core

0.2

0.4

0.2


Energy










Retail Sales - February

0.4%

-0.3

0.4


Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.0

0.4


Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.5

-0.2

0.4







Business Inventories - January

0.6%

0.4

0.5







March 15





Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

231

230


Philadelphia Fed Survey

23.1

25.8

23.3


NY Fed Manufacturing Index

15.5

13.1

14.6







Export Prices - February

0.3%

0.8

0.3


Import Prices

0.2

1.0

0.3







NAHB Index - March

73

72

72







March 16





Housing Starts - February

1.260M

1.326

1.284


Building Permits

1.300

1.396

1.324







Industrial Production - February

0.2%

-0.1

0.3


Capacity Utilization

77.6

77.5

77.7


Manufacturing Output

0.2

0

0.4







JOLTS - January

5.811M

5.811

5.800


Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

100.2

99.7

98.5







Week of March 19





March 21





Current Account - Q4

-$124.0B

-100.6



Existing Home Sales - February

5.520M

5.380



FMOC

1.625%

1.375








March 22





FHFA Housing Market Index - January

0.3%

0.3








PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.3

55.3



PMI Services Flash Index

55.9

55.9








Leading Indicators - February

0.3%

1.0



Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

17

17








March 23





Durable Good Orders - February

0.0

-3.6



New Home Sales - February

620K

593