Factory, Trade, And Employment Reports This Week, And My Predictions

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Posted: Mar 05, 2018 9:36 AM
Factory, Trade, And Employment Reports This Week, And My Predictions

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.



Forecast

Prior Observation

Week of March 5



March 5



ISM Services Index

59.5

59.9




March 6



Factory Orders - January

-1.5%

1.7

Durable Goods Orders 

-3.7

-3.7

Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.7

0.7




March 7



ADP Employment Report - February

195

234

International Trade - January

-$55.1B

-53.1




Productivity - Q(4) - revised

-0.2%

-0.1

Unit Labor Cost

2.1

2.0




Consumer Credit - January

$18.2B

18.4




March 8



Initial Jobless Claims

220K

210




March 9



Nonfarm Payrolls - February

200K

200

Private

195

196

Manufacturing

17

15

Unemployment

4.1%

4.1

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services 




Wholesale Inventories - January

0.7%

0.7




Week of March 12



March 12



Treasury Budget - February

-203B

49.2




March 13



NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

105.5

106.9

JOLTS - January


5.811




Consumer Price Index - February

0.2%

0.5

CPI Core

0.2

0.3




March 14



Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

0.4

PPI Core

0.2

0.4




Retail Sales - February

0.6%

-0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.0

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.5

-0.2




Business Inventories - January

0.3%

0.4




March 15



Philadelphia Fed Survey

23.0

25.8

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

15.5

13.1




Export Prices - February

0.4%

0.8

Import Prices

0.2

1.0

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

0.2

0.5




NAHB Index - March

73

72




March 16



Housing Starts - February

1.260M

1.326

Building Permits

1.300

1.396




Industrial Production - February

0.2%

-0.1

Capacity Utilization

77.6

77.5

Manufacturing Output

0.2

0




Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

99.7

99.7