Coming This Week, New Budget Surplus Report Plus Rising Inflation?

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Posted: Feb 12, 2018 10:02 AM
Coming This Week, New Budget Surplus Report Plus Rising Inflation?

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 12




February 12




Treasury Budget - January

$59.0B

-23.2

51.0





February 13




NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

105.0

104.9

105.8





February 14




Consumer Price Index - January

0.3%

0.1

0.3

Core CPI

0.1

0.3

0.2





Retail Sales - January

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0,4

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.4

0.4





Business Inventories - December

0.3%

0.4

0,2





February 15




Initial Unemployment Claims

228K

221

229

Philadelphia Fed Survey

23.0

22.2

21.5





Producer Price Index - January

0.3%

-0.1

0.4

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.1

-0.1

0.2





NY Fed Manufacturing Index

17.7

17.7

17.5





Industrial Production - January

0.2%

0.9

0.2

Manufacturing Output

0.3

0.1

0.2

Capacity Utilization

78.0

77.9

78.0





NAHB Index - February 

73

72

72





February 16




Housing Starts - January

1.215M

1.192

1.230

Building Permits

1.285

1.302

1.300





Export Prices - February

0.3%

0.1

0.3

Import Prices

0.6

-0.1

0.6

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum








Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

96.0%

95.7

95.5





Week of February 19




February 21




PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

55.0

55.5


PMI Services Flash Index

53.0

53.3






Existing Home Sales - January

5.530K

5.570






February 22




Initial Unemployment Claims

228K

221


Leading Indicators - January

0.3%

0.6


Kansas City Manufacturing Index

18

16