Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 22 And 29

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Posted: Jan 22, 2018 9:52 AM
Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 22 And 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.




Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 22




January 22




Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index

0.25

0.15

0.25





January 23




Richmond Fed Index

18

20

18





January 24




FHFA Housing Market Index - November

0.4%

0.5






PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January

54.5

55.0

55.0

PMI Services Flash Index - January

54.2

53.7

54.0





Existing Home Sales - December

5.600M

5.810

5.750





January 25




Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

220

240

International Trade in Goods- December

-$69.0B

-70.0

-68.9

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.3%

0.8






New Home Sales - December

650K

733

683

Leading Indicators

0.3%

0.5

0.5

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

14

14

14





January 26




GDP - Q4 (a)

3.0%

3.2

2.9

GDP Implicit Price Deflator








Durable Goods Orders - December

0.9%

1.3

0.8





Week of January 29




January 29




Personal Income - December

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

0.6

0.5

PCE Price Index


0.2


Core PCE Price Index


0.1


Real Personal Spending








Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

25.5

29.7






January 30




S&P Case/Shiller Index - November




Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.2


Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.7


Twenty City Y/Y

6.4%

6.4






Consumer Confidence

122.1

122.1

122.4





January 31




ADP Employment Survey - January

195

250

173





Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.5%

0.7


Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.5






Chicago PMI - January

63.9

67.6


Pending Home Sales - December 

109.5

109.5


FMOC

1.375%

1.375






February 1




Auto Sales* - January

17.6M

17.85

17.5

Car Sales

6.2

6.09


Truck Sales

11.6

11.76


*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence








Productivity - Q4 (p)

1.2%

3.0

1.9

Unit Labor Costs

-0.1

-0.2






PMI Manufacturing Index - January








ISM (Mfg) - January

59.2

59.7

58.9

ISM Prices








Construction Spending - January

0.4%

0.8

0.4





February 2




Nonfarm Payrolls - January

200K

148

163

Private

195

146

163

Manufacturing

22

25

17

Unemployment

4.1%

4.1

4.1

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5


Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services 





Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

94.4

94.4






Factory Orders - December

0.7%

1.3

0.7

Durable Goods Orders

0.9

1.3


Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.5

1.4