Republicans In Danger Of Losing The Senate

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Posted: Jun 12, 2020 12:42 PM
Republicans In Danger Of Losing The Senate

Source: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Trump's mishandled Covid-19 and the George Floyd riots so badly that a red backlash may cost Republicans the Senate.

I created the above map from the Real Clear Politics interactive map after checking the latest polls. 

The Real Clear Politics base maps looks a bit different.

Real Clear Politics Map

I modified the RCP map based on recent polls.

Senate Polls

  • Michigan: Peters is way ahead in numerous poll. I listed two of them. It is a mystery why RCP labels Michigan a tossup. 
  • North Carolina: One poll has the Republican up by 2 the other has the Democrat up by 2. I see this as a tossup. 
  • Kansas: Three polls in Kansas are +1 for someone. The Democrat is ahead in 2 of them. Call it a tossup. RCP has it in the Republican column.
  • Iowa: Democrat Greenfield has a three point lead. RCP has Iowa in the Republican column. I call it a tossup.
  • Kentucky: I am not sure what to make of this one, but Amy McGrath is ahead of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. RCP has this in the Republican column. To me it looks questionable. 

What Would a Flip Take?

Assuming my map is correct, Democrats have 47 seats which is their current total. 

I have 8 states as tossups, but many of them simply because there are no polls.

To flip the Senate, democrats would have to flip 3 states if Trump loses. 

If Trump wins Democrats would have to flip 4 states.

Three is very doable, and arguably likely.

Colorado

The Colorado Polls are very stale (April and Early May) but Democrat John Hickenlooper was ahead of incumbent Republican Cory Gardner by a whopping 18 points in the most recent poll. 

First, Hickenlooper has to beat Andrew Romanoff in a runoff primary. But all signs point to that. 

If I overestimate Democrat chances in Kentucky, I do the opposite in Colorado.

Predictit

At the beginning of June, something snapped, and everyone should know the cause.

Trump made a complete fool out of himself with a bible photo-op in the wake of the George Floyd murder. 

Trump's Bubble Just Shattered

I commented on it in on June 3 in Trump's Bubble Just Shattered.

Since then 4 Republican Senators criticized Trump and a huge array of former ranking military leaders did the same. 

Yesterday, the current chair of the Joint Chief of Staff,  Army Gen. Mark Milley, apologized for being at that photo op with Trump.

“I should not have been there,” Gen. Milley said in a pre-recorded speech at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. “My presence in that moment and in that environment created a perception of the military involved in domestic politics. As a commissioned uniformed officer, it was a mistake that I have learned from. And I sincerely hope we all can learn from it.”

On June 9, In a Ridiculous Tweet, Trump Defends Police Who Crack a 75-Year Old Man's Head.

Also on June 9, I noted Trump Defends Immunity Laws that Protect Bad Cops.

Still 5 Months Away

The election is still 5 months away. Things can change.  But Trump is Trump so there is no reason to expect things to change.

At the current speed, Trump is going to cost the Republicans not only the presidency, but the Senate.