Are You Overpaying For Stocks?

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Posted: Jun 04, 2020 12:56 PM
Are You Overpaying For Stocks?

Source: AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

Think about earnings, earnings revisions, and how much you are paying to buy stocks.

Lance Roberts, Chief Strategist at RIA Advisors has the "Tweet of the Day" 

Too Fast, Too Furious 

Buy the Unknown the Unwanted, the Unloved 

Small Cap Valuations Through the Roof 

Agree with Bianco on that.

Marijuana Legalization Coming?

My answer: Yes, if Biden wins, and perhaps anyway.

China-US Trade Souring

Reflections on Liquidity 

Pent-Up Spending Coming 

For how long no one knows, and that is what matters. 

I suspect something like a W- or square-root-shaped recovery with weak uptrends following that deep second-quarter decline.

Grim Economic Data

  1. May 8: Over 20 Million Jobs Lost As Unemployment Rises Most In History
  2. May 15: Retail Sales Plunge Way More Than Expected
  3. May 15: Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years
  4. May 30: GDPNow Forecast is Negative 51.2 Percent
  5. June 3: Bad Economic Reports? Yes, But They Were Supposed to Be Bad

Ripple Impacts

For a detailed synopsis of the state of the economy and the ripple impacts, please see The Economy Will Not Soon Return to Normal: Here's Why.

Global COVID-19 Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion

To understand the total global risk, please see Global COVID-19 Risk Ranges Up to $82 Trillion

GDP Projections Before and After Covid-19

I added that red line and expect a shape something like that. 

Why?

In addition to depleted savings and an expected huge change in attitudes on risk, presidents prefer to have a recession or weakness in the first two years of their term, not their 4th year.

The US is in recession now. After a weak rebound, it is not at all far-fetched to believe there could be another shorter double-dip coming.

Regardless, I believe the CBO projections in the above chart are optimistic for the reasons stated. 

For discussion, please see CBO Estimates it will Take 10 Years Just to Get Back to Even.