Democrats Might Be Heading For A Contested Convention

Posted: Feb 13, 2020 11:44 AM
The odds of a contested Democratic convention are high and rising.

Yesterday I speculated Bernie Edged Buttigieg But Klobuchar is the Real Winner.

Key Takeaways From New Hampshire

  1. I see one clear winner and one runner-up winner. Neither is Bernie Sanders.
  2. Senator Elizabeth Warren is crippled.
  3. Warren may be crippled, but she is out for Bernie.
  4. The New Hampshire Primary increases the odds of a contested convention.
  5. A lot can happen, but the odds of no winner are now about 30% in my estimation. That is up from 25% in my previous forecast.

Yesterday, Nate Silver at 538 came out with its assessment Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?

  • Bernie Sanders: 36%
  • No One: 36%
  • Biden: 17%
  • Buttigieg: 5%
  • Bloomberg 4%
  • Warren 3%

Bernie's odds of winning outright dropped from 48% to 36%.

Plurality Odds

Bernie's odds of having more delegates than any other candidate are just over 50%, but even if so, he needs to be within striking distance or the superdelegates might act to stop his candidacy.

Once again, Nearly any setup in which 3 candidates can maintain 15% or more of the vote until the end leads to a negotiated convention. And it does not have to be the same three in each state.

New Hampshire increased those odds significantly.

3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Yesterday I commented 3 Down 1 to Go: Bloomberg Hits 3rd Qualifier for NV Debate

Bloomberg needs to top 10% in one more national poll to be on the state for the next debate (Only certain pollsters qualify. Click on the link for detail).

I think it's important to be on the stage but a good friend of mine disagrees. He commented, "no one wins these debates."

No One Wins These Debates

Judging from the huge leap in "No One" perhaps he is right in more ways than one.

"No One" is now tied with Bernie for the lead.