The lead image is from CNN politics.
Quinnipiac University reports Bloomberg Rises, Runs Strong Against Trump.
In the wake of the Iowa caucuses and heading into the New Hampshire primary, there is a dramatic shift in the Democratic primary race for president as Senator Bernie Sanders claims frontrunner status for the first time, overtaking former Vice President Joe Biden, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today.
Sanders gets 25 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while Biden gets 17 percent, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg receives 15 percent, Senator Elizabeth Warren gets 14 percent, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg receives 10 percent, and Senator Amy Klobuchar gets 4 percent. .
In a January 28th poll, prior to the Iowa caucuses, Biden had a modest lead with 26 percent of the vote while Sanders got 21 percent, Warren had 15 percent, Bloomberg received 8 percent, Klobuchar got 7 percent, and Buttigieg received 6 percent.
“Biden scrambles to bounce back in frigid New Hampshire after an icy slide to 17 percent, his lowest national number,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Analyst Tim Malloy.
“Is the Bloomberg camp prepping the white horse for him to ride to the rescue? Maybe not yet, but without setting foot in Iowa or New Hampshire, he is suddenly a looming shadow over the primary field,” Malloy added.
Candidates vs Trump
- Bloomberg tops Trump 51 – 42 percent
- Sanders defeats Trump 51 – 43 percent
- Biden beats Trump 50 – 43 percent
- Klobuchar defeats Trump 49 – 43 percent
- Warren wins narrowly over Trump 48 – 44 percent
- Buttigieg is also slightly ahead of Trump 47 – 43 percent
President Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, as 42 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 55 percent have an unfavorable view of him. However, it is his best favorability rating since a March 7th, 2017 poll, when his favorability rating was a negative 43 – 53 percent. [I calculate -13]
Like President Trump, the top four Democratic candidates in the primary are viewed more unfavorably than favorably. Warren has the worst net score (favorable minus unfavorable) among all registered voters, with Biden close behind. Biden’s favorability numbers have been declining over the last year since his positive 53 –33 percent favorability rating in a December 19th, 2018 poll.
- Warren gets a negative 39 – 47 percent favorability rating [-8]
- Biden gets a negative 43 – 50 percent [-7]
- Bloomberg gets a negative 34 – 40 percent, with 25 percent who haven’t heard enough about him [-6]
- Sanders gets a negative 44 – 49 percent [-5]
- Buttigieg gets a positive 36 – 32 percent, and 31 percent haven’t heard enough about him [+4]
- Klobuchar gets a positive 32 – 22 percent, with 44 percent who haven’t heard enough about her [+10]
I have maintained all along that Klobuchar would make a strong candidate. The Democrats need a moderate to have the best chance and she fits right in. She also has the fewest enemies. Not knowing her helps.
Warren is a lightning rod and the Democratic candidate most likely to lose to Trump.
Hung Primary Odds Keep Rising
The better Bloomberg does, the more likely Democrats have no clear winner heading into the national convention.
Biden rates to get clobbered in New Hampshire but then South Carolina will be very favorable to him.
The Quinnipiac poll is not yet posted.
By my count, Bloomberg just needs one more poll (4 total) over 10% to have eligibility for the Nevada debate. Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar have already qualified. Bloomberg would make six.
No Winner Odds 25%
On February 5, I wrote Odds of "No Winner" in the Democratic Primary Top 1 In 4
For now, I will stick with that estimate, but today's implications are a bit higher. The problem now is most polls in key states are too stale.
For example, the latest Texas poll is from January 19. The latest California poll is from January 27.
Given the Iowa Debacle, (See Blatantly Incorrect Iowa Caucus Math Is Now Official) and the staleness of the polls it's even harder than normal to estimate the current situation.
Nearly any setup in which 3 candidates can maintain 15% or more of the vote until the end leads to a negotiated convention. And it does not have to be the same three in each state.