Tories Rebel And Boris Loses Brexit Delay Vote: What's Next?

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Posted: Sep 04, 2019 10:06 AM
Tories Rebel And Boris Loses Brexit Delay Vote: What's Next?

Source: AP Photo/Frank Augstein

Boris Johnson lost an "emergency" So24 bill designed to prevent a No Deal Brexit. The House of Lords must approve.

Boris Johnson 0-1 in the UK parliament losing a Benn Bill Brexit Showdown with Parliament.

This was a vote to allow a vote. The actual vote is tomorrow.

In response, Boris Johnson he will not accept the bill which would force him to seek a Brexit extension until January 31, 2019.

Instead, Johnson tabled a motion for general election.

Jeremy Corbyn says that if Johnson wants an election, he must get the bill passed first.

Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat leader backs the idea of an election, but not before MPs have removed the risk of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

Johnson's Statement

Let there be no doubt about the consequences of this vote tonight. It means that parliament is on the brink of wrecking any deal we might be able to strike in Brussels.

Because tomorrow’s bill would hand control of the negotiations to the EU. And that would mean more dither, more delay, more confusion. And it would mean that the EU themselves would be able decide how long to keep this country in the EU.

And since I refuse to go along with that plan we are going to have to make a choice. I don’t want an election. The public don’t want an election. But if the House votes for this bill tomorrow, the public will have to choose who goes to Brussels on October 17 to sort this out and take this country forward.

Everyone will know if the Rt Hon Gentleman [Jeremy Corbyn] is the prime minister, he will go to Brussels, he will beg for an extension, you will accept whatever Brussels demands and we’ll have years more arguments over Brexit.

And by contrast, everyone will know that if I am prime minister, I will go to Brussels, I will go for a deal and get a deal but if they won’t do a deal we will leave anyway on 31 October.

The people of this country will have to choose.

The leader of the Opposition has been begging for an election for two years. I don’t want an election but if MPs vote tomorrow to stop the negotiations and to compel another pointless delay of Brexit, potentially for years, then that will be the only way to resolve this.

I can confirm that tonight we will are tabling a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

What's Next?

If the bill passes, it goes to the House of Lords where it will be debated.

First, Johnson will attempt a filibuster. However, there may be enough votes to take away that option. Also if the bill is amended in any form, it will go back to Commons for approval.

Assuming those options fail, Johnson may seek the extension but only on condition Parliament agrees to his request for elections.

Another possibility is to simply not honor the request. If Johnson delays until September 10, Parliament will not be in session again until October 14.

Meanwhile any Tory who votes against the government tomorrow will be outed from the party.

21 Tories Rebel

No Second Chance - Update

Andrea Leadsom said the rebels would be given a second chance tomorrow.

The Guardian just posted this update.

Mark Spencer, the chief whip, has been ringing the Tory rebels telling them they are having the whip withdrawn, we’ve been told. Philip Hammond, the former chancellor, has already had the call. As of now, he is technically no longer a Conservative MP.

All 21 Rebel MPs were just kicked out of the Tory party.

Most of those rebels will lose their seats in the next election.

Price to Pay

Expect a Landslide

When the elections do take place, it is highly likely Johnson teams up with Nigel Farage.

If so, I suggest he will win in a landslide given the first-past-the-post rules (the person with the most vote wins).

The Remainers are horribly split. Labour may even fall to third place.

Blame the Ramainers

If Johnson wins a majority, No Deal will happen as the Remainer Tories will lose their seats.

Finally, prepare to blame the Remainers for not allowing Johnson to attempt to work out a deal with the EU.

Addendum

The mayor of London and avowed remain supporter, Sadiq Khan, has described tonight’s vote as a “first step towards stopping Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit”.

However, we are not over the line yet. It is now absolutely vital that this Bill is passed by both Houses, and that Boris Johnson ensures it receives Royal assent and then agrees to abide by it.

The addendum confirms two things:

  1. Johnson is likely to work with Farage if he needs to
  2. Johnson may delay Royal Assent until October 14, unless Cobyn agrees to new elections sooner rather than later.

I believe the Johnson team was prepared for this outcome. Amusingly, it is possible they wanted this outcome!