The Monthly International Trade in Goods and Services report by the Census Bureau shows the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised.
The Econoday consensus was for the deficit to increase to $53.5 billion from a prior reading of $50.8 billion, now revised to $51.2 billion.
The $-55.5 billion result was outside the entire estimate range of $-54.7 billion to $-49.5 billion.
Exports, Imports, and Balance
- May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports.
- May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports.
- The May increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.4 billion to $76.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.6 billion.
Surpluses: The May figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.1), Hong Kong ($2.6), Singapore ($0.6), Brazil ($0.5), Saudi Arabia (less than $0.1), and United Kingdom (less than $0.1).
Deficits: Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.1), European Union ($16.9), Mexico ($9.1), Japan ($6.0), Germany ($5.8), Canada ($3.6), Italy ($2.6), France ($2.1), India ($1.9), Taiwan ($1.5), South Korea ($1.4), and OPEC ($0.1).
The Trump administration should be a little worried by this chart. U.S. non petrol exports are now falling y/y ....— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) July 3, 2019
The non-petrol trade deficit can only shrink if U.S. imports also fall.
(the dip last fall was soybean driven, but that's not driving the 19 numbers) pic.twitter.com/FUh0eG6dax
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $15.7 billion, or 6.4 percent, from the same period in 2018. Exports increased $5.1 billion or 0.5 percent. Imports increased $20.8 billion or 1.6 percent.
Small gains vs China were wiped out by losses elsewhere, notably Mexico and the EU.
Trump is sure to howl about the EU.
Don't worry, imports will plunge in a recession.