A whole raft of economic survey information released recently shows a leaky economy is threatening to help sink Obama’s reelection chances this fall.
On Thursday, pollster Rasmussen published results of their daily consumer confidence numbers showing the index at its lowest point at any time since the start of 2012.
“The Rasmussen Consumer Index,” writes Rasmussen, “which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, fell another point on Thursday to the lowest level of 2012. At 78.5, confidence is down three points from a week ago, down three points from a month ago and down 11 points from three months ago. Confidence is down 19 points from the highest levels of 2012.”
Meanwhile, a survey of manufacturers released by Commerce Department shows that outside of some strength in aircraft orders, businesses have been ordering fewer durable goods.
From the Dow Jones NewsWire via NASDAQ.com:
“June's increase was led by stronger demand for civilian and defense aircraft, up 14.3% and 23.9%, respectively. Outside those typically volatile categories, new orders were much weaker. Excluding transportation, new orders fell 1.1% in June. Outside the surge in aircraft orders, the demand for big-ticket items faltered, indicating continued caution on the part of businesses," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.
Manufacturing has played a key role in the recovery, though there are signs the sector is slowing as U.S. consumers remain cautious and demand from overseas fades.
In June, the Conference Board, the most-widely watched indicator of consumer confidence fell 2.4 points. “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in May,” reported the business association, “fell further in June. The Index now stands at 62.0 (1985=100), down from 64.4 in May. The Expectations Index declined to 72.3 from 77.3. The Present Situation Index, however, increased to 46.6 from 44.9 last month.”
In July, the Board revised downward its GDP growth forecast for the year, from an annual rate of 2.2 percent in May to 1.9 percent annually in July.
Last month CNN said that computer models created by associate professor John Sides of George Washington University that “analyze the impact of the economy on the presidential campaign,” show that incumbent Obama only retains a slight edge based on a mix of historical economic data from previous presidential cycles, despite the incumbent advantage.
“What his models show him is that the president is facing similar conditions to what former President Jimmy Carter faced when he lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980,” writes CNN, “with one exception: Carter was less popular than Obama among his own party.”
However, GDP growth rates during Carter’s term were much better than they have been under Obama, although both the Carter and the Obama economies showed the same dead cat bounce in the later half of the terms.
Obama may have more loyalty from Democrats than Carter did, but isn’t that so much the worse for Obama?
Long ago the Howard Dean wing of the Howard Dean party separated themselves from reality. In fact, the faction ran out of room in the Left wing Democrat party and had to crawl out the window ideologically.
Today they wander- er, occupy would be better word - space that would be unrecognizable to liberals as diverse as Harry Truman and Martin Luther King.
Obama-Dean has trotted out Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a war on women, banks, energy, jobs, family, flag, country and freedom in a pathetic attempt to change the subject from anything other than the failed economic policies- policies of academicians who successfully posed for about 18 months as politicians and policy makers.
What a disastrous 45 months those 18 have cost us.
"This is worst economic recovery America has ever had,” said CBSNews. “We've been looking for hopeful signs, but today the chairman of the Federal Reserve threw a cold splash of reality on those hopes. Ben Bernanke said any improvement in unemployment will 'likely be frustratingly slow.' Well, yes, to say the least."
And the very least is the new normal that we’ve come to expect from this country under the greatest president in the history of mankind.
"The American economy is stuck in a new kind of normal,” writes the New York Times, “somewhere between crisis and prosperity, and economic policy makers are struggling to define their role."
Yes, it sounds a lot like Jimmy Carter.
And while the Dems may have Obama’s back, don’t expect the rest of us to be so forgiving.Because the surveys say Obama’s a loser in November.
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