The most influential modeling system puts peak death rate at yesterday. Here's a link to the CNN story (I'll put the quote at the bottom of this write-up): https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-10-20/h_1f905ee7677f8024ad1670db650ad595
To see the image, click here.
If this data is right, death peaked on Good Friday. We'll see in the next few days, of course, but I remember talking to my wife earlier this week wondering if Good Friday would be the day of the top and the beginning of the reversal. So far, that is what the data are saying. I don't claim to understand the mysteries of Providence, the nature of cause and effect, how God guides history or shapes it. But I do think that this 'coincidence' is deeply meaningful. Good Friday is the peak of death.
This seems so much more appropriate than the President's (well meaning, I think) target to try to have things open by Easter and the churches full. I understood, and even liked, what he was saying. But it smacked too much of us and our power. We were going to set the date. We were going to overcome through ingenuity and sheer will. That would have been an Easter of our making.
But this Good Friday peak (if it holds) savors more of a plan above our reckoning and our power. Of something 'in the heavens' between the 'powers and principalities'.
We did our part (sort of) we stayed in our homes (sort of) while the Angel of death passed over and instead of washing feet we washed hands. But if today, Holy Saturday has a death toll lower than Good Friday and at Easter death continues to retreat, etc. Then that will to my mind look like a gift beyond our poor Lenten fast in which we emulated more Israel's grumbling in the wilderness than we did Christ's faithful patience. But that's what grace is.
Quote from CNN story below:
"The influential coronavirus model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now calls today the peak day for new deaths, and revises several key numbers slightly.
The model update, released this afternoon, keeps peak hospital resource use on Saturday. But it moves peak death numbers to today instead of Sunday, and the number now peaks at a projected 1,983 — down from about 2,200 in an earlier version."
Quote from University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation summary here:
"Predicted peak for daily COVID-19 deaths. At the national level, current data suggest that the predicted peak for daily COVID-19 deaths could be approximately April 10, reaching 1,983 deaths (estimate range of 500 to 5,583). These projections suggest that the US may be nearing its peak for COVID-19 deaths; subsequently, we may soon see the number of daily deaths decreasing at the national level."
Spreadsheet is available for download at the bottom of that page, and I've checked row 2 (which is national data), column J. Indeed, the model does show the mean peaking on Good Friday.