Pelosi Shoots Down Stimulus

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Posted: Oct 01, 2020 12:40 PM
Pelosi Shoots Down Stimulus

Source: AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

The market continues to move in sympathy with the scuttlebutt over another round of stimulus.  After more investors suspended disbelief, the market roared out of the gate.  Then rumors of possibly no deal took the air out of the balloon.

I think some of the tweets and rumors are deliberate attempts by both sides to move the needle and gain leverage.

The biggest winners are all beaten down retailers (see Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) on morning hotline) and Boeing (BA), which continues to act intriguing.

The thing is the market is on pins and needles.  The S&P 500 tickled that 3,400 resistance level and stumbled from there.  The index is poised to make a monster move that would re-test the all-time high with the right economic backdrop. 

Near term that means fiscal stimulus.

ISM Manufacturing

The economy notched its fifth consecutive month of growth after cratering in April.  September’s growth was fractionally slower than August, but it was expansion, nonetheless.

  • Headline 55.4 -0.6 percentage points
  • New orders 60.2 -7.4 percentage points
  • Production 61.0 -2.3 percentage points
  • Employment 49.3 +3.2 percentage points
  • Inventories 47.1 +2.7 percentage points
  • Prices 62.8 +3.3 percentage points.

To see the chart, click here.

Construction Spending

Construction spending in August grew by 1.4%, which is almost double Wall Street consensus, led by residential spending.

  • Single family $287.9 billion annualize pace, +5.5% month to month
  • Multifamily $85.4 billion annualize pace, -0.1% month the month

Intriguing moves

  • Auto $8.0 billion +25.2%
  • Parking $3.5 billion +103.3%

To see the chart, click here.

With all the economic data and all the hopes of stimulus, there are still headlines that will move the needle.

Coronavirus Positivity Rate in 20 New York City “Hot Spots” Rises to 6.5% from 5.5% the Day Before

Hang on boys and girls and (try to) enjoy the ride.