The market started the week off right. Although I must point out that the market breadth wasn’t as bullish as the closing print for the major indices, which all advanced more than 3% on the day. There was just as much downside volume as upside on the NYSE, and significantly more 52-week lows than highs on both exchanges.
52 Week High
52 Week Low
Technology and Health Care dominated the session, while Energy and Financials lagged well behind.
S&P 500 Index
Communication Services (XLC)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Health Care (XLV)
Real Estate (XLRE)
The biggest winner was Autodesk (ADSK), which we added to the Hotline model portfolio. Meanwhile, drug company stocks which spent much of the year under pressure as the epitome of corporate greed on the campaign trail.
Now, we’re greeted each morning with more hope and confidence, as medical companies continue to step up with testing options and new vaccine hopes.
Beating the coronavirus will be the ultimate buy signal, and that’s why the signs of flattening the curve are more important than economic data. Yesterday, signs of virus cases flattening in several states helped the market remain higher.
Right now, this is the only thing that matters on Main Street and Wall Street.
We are back to 15% cash after adding a new Hotline position to the model portfolio yesterday.
The best news yesterday was the USNS Comfort and the USNS Mercy arriving in New York and Los Angeles.
As ore anecdotal data becomes available, the more economists get to sharpen their pencils, Consequently, worst-case scenarios just become more dire for the second quarter.
- Estimated layoffs in second quarter 2020 = 47.05 million
- Unemployed persons in second quarter 2020 = 52.81 million
- Unemployment rate in second quarter 2020 = 32.1%
- 1Q GDP -9%
- 2Q GDP -34% from -24%
- 3Q GDP +19% from +12%
- Unemployment 15% mid-year
While the numbers are dire, snapback assumptions are also improving as well. The good news is the more a worst-case scenario gets baked into the market, the less it impacts investors if accurate.