Not A Trade Deal So Much As A Pause That Could Turn Tides

Posted: Oct 14, 2019 10:16 AM
Not A Trade Deal So Much As A Pause That Could Turn Tides

Source: AP Photo/Richard Drew

An artist's impression from The Illustrated London News of 9 January 1915: "British and German Soldiers Arm-in-Arm Exchanging Headgear: A Christmas Truce between Opposing Trenches" (Google)

At the urging of Pope Benedict XV, British, Belgian, and French soldiers climbed out of their trenches to meet German soldiers on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in 1914. The truce allowed the soldiers to mingle, exchange headgear, and according to some, they were lured to get in a game of soccer.

The war was only in its fifth month and the new Pope had only taken his position in September, so there was a degree of hope in the air. As it turns out, World War I would last another 46 months, and the death toll would reach 15 million lives. 

Still, that truce showed even the worst of enemies could show mutual compassion even if it only lasted two days. Conversely, it also underscored the fact that warring parties like to win those wars no matter how ugly and deadly.

Which brings us to what some are calling a truce between the United States and China. Since 70% of trade between the two nations is still in effect, it’s hard to call it a truce or a deal. However, it’s the kind of pause that could turn the tide.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees an extensive economic impact in 2020 from the trade war.

Percentage point reduction to 2020 GDP

  • China: 2.0
  • The United States: 0.6
  • Global economy: 0.7

This is a good agreement for both sides. While the usual critics throw cold water as if this were the final deal, the fact is so many were okay with the status quo, but now they have declared themselves the arbiters of progress.

Yes, China needs food and our farmers need to sell products, so it’s a natural fit that was always going to work in favor of the United States. However, don’t think China doesn’t hate giving up the angle that allows the Mainstream media to portray the administration negatively among farmers and sympathizers (which should be all Americans).

Big Tech is in focus, which means the NASDAQ Composite will be in focus as well. On Friday, the index pierced through its 50-day moving average with conviction and now faces several technical hurdles.

  • First test: 8,194
  • Second test: 8,330

Today's Session

Let's watch closely, as stocks are trying for fourth straight day of gains.