Headwinds Not Yet Tailwinds

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Posted: Sep 20, 2019 9:15 AM
Headwinds Not Yet Tailwinds

Source: AP Photo/Richard Drew

There was more good news on housing, as existing home sales came in better than expected.  As Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, stated “as expected, buyers are finding it hard to resist the current rates.”

Those rates are now 3.62% for a thirty-year conventional loan, down from 3.77% in July and 4.54% a year ago. 

  • 5.49 million annualized pace
  • +1.3% month to month
  • +2.6% year to year 
  • $278,200 average selling price +4.7%

Existing Home Sales

Also on the economic front, Wall Street was looking for a -0.2% print on Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which came in unchanged.  The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

  • Average weekly hours, manufacturing
  • Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
  • Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
  • ISM® Index of New Orders
  • Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
  • Building permits, new private housing units
  • Leading Credit Index™
  • Stock prices, 500 common stocks
  • Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
  • Average consumer expectations for business conditions

I like the action in the market, but its clear investors are looking for a catalyst, even as headwinds, while not yet tailwinds, are a lot less threatening than a month ago.

Let’s keep our powder dry.