US Breaks Record Of Longest Economic Expansion: Why I Think It Could Keep Going

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Posted: Jul 02, 2019 12:30 PM
US Breaks Record Of Longest Economic Expansion: Why I Think It Could Keep Going

Source: Craig Kohlruss/The Fresno Bee via AP

In my Afternoon Note, I suggested the market could rally into the close, as the session had all the hallmarks of a classic shakeout. Moreover, I’m not so sure that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) number completely took the 50-basis point (BPS) cut off the table. Then again, yesterday’s session was more about success than failure or shortcomings, as investors rotated out of safe havens Real Estate and Utilities, and piled into Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary.

Financials were intriguing because it wasn’t only the big banks that just skated through the so-called stress test that led the way, but rather smaller brokerage names.

Consumer Discretionary was more than Amazon (AMZN), which rallied to $28.00. However, Best Buy (BBY), Whirlpool (WHR), and Mohawk Industries (MHK) were among the bigger winners, perhaps signaling a rebound in the housing space.

S&P 500 Index

+0.77%

 

Communication Services (XLC)

+0.81%

 

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+0.88%

 

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.60%

 

Energy (XLE)

+0.09%

 

Financials (XLF)

+1.20%

 

Health Care (XLV)

+0.50%

 

Industrials (XLI)

+0.09%

 

Materials (XLB)

+0.77%

 

Real Estate (XLRE)

 

-0.19%

Technology (XLK)

+1.59%

 

Utilities (XLU)

 

-0.25%

 

Rally Foundation

Market Breadth continues to improve, as new highs are climbing, and new lows are dipping.

NYSE

  • 1,743 advancers vs 1,215 decliners
  • 12 new lows, best since 9 new lows, on June 3, 2019

NASDAQ

  • 1,880 advancers v 1,236 decliners
  • 38 new lows, best since 25 new lows, on June 6

Chips Ahoy!

Yesterday, the biggest winners of the session were computer-chip makers, rebounding on news of relief from a ban to sell to Huawei. I think it’s great the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high and chip Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) didn’t. That could change this week.

SMH

Truth About Record Expansion

A lot is being made over the fact the United States is breaking the record for the longest economic expansion in history (or modern history), but it hasn’t been all wine and roses. On the contrary, much of this expansion has seen the nation in survival mode. Do you remember when we were celebrating green shoots?  Signs of hope. 

For this reason, I think the expansion could go on much longer. 

Note: If you add up the average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth over the life of U.S. expansions, the current rebound would be less than two others in a combined GDP. It’s barely higher than the March 1975 – January 1980 expansion, which only lasted 58 months against the current 120 months run.

Portfolio Approach

We don’t have much cash, so we are reexamining positions as we consider raising cash to fund new ideas.

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

1

4

1

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

1

2

1

Industrial

Materials

Real Estate

2

3

1

Technology

Utilities

Cash

2

0

2

Today’s Session

It looks like a classic holiday session, although fireworks won’t go off for another two days. The market has shifted back into wait and see mode.  Of course, a lot of that has to do with this Friday’s jobs report, which looms large.