So, the major indices couldn’t eclipse early high points. However, that last-minute rally into the close on Thursday was impressive. Moreover, market breadth was the best I’ve seen in weeks.
- 2,113 Advancers
- 838 Decliners
- 124 New Highs
- 47 New Lows
- 2.37 billion Up Volume
- 748.4 million Down Volume
- 2,156 Advancers
- 965 Decliners
- 70 New Highs
- 68 New Lows
- 1.38 billion Up Volume
- 444.1 million Down Volume
Message of Market
By the end of the session, every sector except Health Care was higher with Energy leading the way, but Communication Services was not far behind. While Disney (DIS) led the way after a big target increase at Morgan Stanley (MS), and the stealth rebounds in Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) continued.
The widespread success of the rally continues to be a hallmark of the 2019 rally, which once saw 450 winners in the S&P 500.
Beyond all the exogenous issues impacting the stock market, the distribution and resolve are so under- reported (in fact, not ever discussed), but perhaps it’s the biggest reason to be bullish.
S&P 500 Index
Communication Services (XLC)
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
Consumer Staples (XLP)
Health Care (XLV)
Real Estate (XLRE)
No position changes.
Economic data continued today.
Retail sales for May increased 0.5% vs the estimate of +0.6%. April was revised to +0.3% from -0.2%. Retail less auto and gas was up 0.5% month over month topping estimates of +0.4%.
- Eleven of 13 major retail categories increased, led by a 1.4% gain in non-store retailers.
- Electronics and appliance stores, as well as sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and bookstores +1.1% increased.
- Sales at automobile and part dealers advanced 0.7% after falling 0.5% in April, revised upward from a 1.1% drop.
- The only sectors to show declines were food and beverage stores, -0.1%, and miscellaneous retailers -1.3%.
While consumers are spending, they are also saving at elevated levels. The U.S. saving rate is in focus. In 2001 to 2007, it averaged 4.7%, and since 2009, its average 7.0%.
At 10 ET, we will get a read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The estimate is for 97.3 from the prior month of 100.0.
May Industrial Production increased+0.4% vs +0.2% consensus, compared to -0.4% in the prior month,
- Manufacturing rose +0.2% driven by higher automotive product output, and mining output rose 0.1%
- Total production +2% year of year
- Capacity utilization for the industrial sector +0.2% to 78.1%
- The biggest gain came from utilities, which surged 2.1%
China Trade Impact
China factories have seen the slowest growth since 2002. Investment has decelerated as the trade war takes its toll. China industrial output rose 5% from the prior year, while fixed-asset investment expanded 5.6% in the first five months. Both were slower than in April and below expectations.
Retail sales was a bright spot, expanding 8.6% compared to May last year, partly because a longer May Day holiday encouraged more tourism and spending.
Broadcom (AVGO) is getting hit hard and it is taking semiconductor names with it. On its earnings call, the company cited it sees the second half of the year revenue flat and down high single digits year over year, as the extremely uncertain environment is weighing on demand. Guidance was conservative. The environment is extremely nervous and uncertain based on the potential for the next round of tariffs.
Highlights from call:
- US China trade conflict and Huawei ban are impacting demand. Huawei accounted for $900 million in revenue last year (4.3% mix).
- Networking business is the only area of strength and it will grow double digits despite Huawei.
- Started seeing softness at beginning of Q3 (May); dramatic reduction accelerated with Huawei ban.
- Second half of the year will be more in line with the first half instead of recovering.
- Uncertainty is weighing on demand, causing broad based inventory reductions.
- Not seeing any year over year growth in any end-market segments.
The markets are under pressure today.