Don't Rely On Mainstream Media For Tonight's Midterms Predictions

Posted: Aug 28, 2018 11:14 AM
Don't Rely On Mainstream Media For Tonight's Midterms Predictions

The last round of major primaries before the mid-term elections are tonight, and who wins tonight will determine the posture of both parties heading in to November. Democrats are wrestling between abandoning the radicalism and identity politics of the left and orienting themselves towards the working class, and Republicans are deciding if their party is going to be a Trump Defense Force or if it will look beyond the Trump presidency by embracing “principles.”

If you want to know which paths the parties will take tonight, you can’t rely on the mainstream media. CNN, MSNBC and Fox are all biased media outlets, and the pundits they put on their shows have no stake in getting things right. Political prediction markets have a better record than pundits because the people betting have a real incentive to get things right: if they’re wrong, they lose money. Here’s what the people with money on the line think will happen tonight.


Democratic gubernatorial primary:

Gwen Graham: 83%

Philip Levine: 11%

Andrew Gillium: 9%

Republican gubernatorial primary:

Ron DeSantis: 91%

Adam Putnam: 13%


Republican gubernatorial primary: 

Kevin Stitt: 86%

Mike Cornett: 23%

1st Congressional Republican primary:

Tim Harris: 60%

Kevin Hern: 37%


2nd Congressional Democratic primary

Ann Kirkpatrick: 83%

Matt Heinz: 28%

Arizona Republican Senate primary: 

Martha McSally: 98%

Kelli Ward: 2%