John Ransom - New Time 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for June 4th, 2014
Posted: 6/4/2014 9:26:00 AM EST

Ransom Notes Radio Webinar
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John Ransom - Inflation, Not the Fed, Determines Interest Rates
Posted: 6/4/2014 9:25:00 AM EST

Quantitative Easing is likely ending in October. That from Dallas Fed President Fisher, who is often the loan monetary hawk at the Fed. From Reuters:

Richard Fisher, one of the Federal Reserve's most ardent policy hawks, said on Tuesday he would favor ending the U.S. central bank's massive bond-buying program in October, but said he does not expect the Fed to start raising interest rates until next year.

"The odds are slim" of a rate rise immediately after the bond-buying program is ended, Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"I don't expect we'll raise short-term rates this year," said Fisher, who is a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year.

That's probably true, but we'll see if the economy cooperates with that scenario. Because while the Federal Reserve can set interest rates lower to try to stimulate the economy, hiking interest rates is a reaction to something bad happening in the economy i.e. inflation.

And guess what? The Fed doesn't get to determine what the inflation rate is.

And we have seen some evidence that the inflation rate is picking up, albeit, not convincing evidence yet. But we rarely see inflation picking up until it's upon us.

It would be ironic that if at the end of QE the money supply created by QE caused inflation to get so out of control that we skipped the whole recovery phase of the economic cycle and went right back to recession.

Ironic, but not totally surprising.

That's always been the concern of guys like Fisher, and frankly myself.

While I think there's some benefit in manipulating interest rates in order to improve the money supply to get the economy going, the policy overhang from politics in Washington as been the most severe drag on the economy. And that's not changing anytime soon.

Fisher's comments are nothing more than informed speculation at this point.

Michael Schaus - In Other News: The Hurricane Gender Gap is Killing People
Posted: 6/3/2014 4:00:00 PM EST

Here are some other highlights and headlines that I noticed over at Ransom Notes Radio:

The Pentagon is trying to justify the high cost of its environmental projects after their “research” has proven to be wildly inaccurate. Among the many false predictions they made a decade ago: California would be underwater by now… It’s a sad thing when dreams don’t come true, isn’t it? (Washington Times)

Hurricanes named after women are more deadly than hurricanes named after men - I didn’t find this shocking… “Hell hath no fury" and such. The Washington post thinks this is because people are inherently sexist, and therefore don’t take storms with female names as seriously as they should... Divorced men were likely not a part of this study. (Washington Post)

The USDA is spending nearly $2 million to change the eating habits of Americans. The agency is currently accepting grant applications to establish a “Center for Behavioral Economics and Healthy Food Choice Research.”… Anyone else want a burger right now? (Free Beacon)

Dick Durbin is on a crusade to snuff out e-cigarettes because they (apparently) are targeting kids with candy flavors. (Right… Let’s regulate e-cigarette flavors while we completely ignore pot brownies.) Isn’t it about time we start banning politicians from Illinois? (Bloomberg)

The reason we should be skeptical of Bowe Bergdahl, and the Administration’s official story: Susan Rice visited the Sunday talk shows. (Breitbart)

Oh, and by the way, we can get a POW back from the Taliban (by releasing the terrorist dream team from Gitmo), but we can’t get a US Marine released from a Mexican prison? Don’t the cartels “owe one” to Eric Holder for all the guns he gave them? (Fox News)

John Ransom - Dollar General Leads
Posted: 6/3/2014 3:25:00 PM EST

Welcome to John Ransom’s Stocks in the News where the headlines meet the trendlines.

Click here to listen to Ransom Notes Radio live or for archives of previous shows.

Stock number one: InterDigital, Inc.

InterDigital's Shares Rally On Updated Guidance—Benzinga

In a press release issued Tuesday morning, InterDigital (NASDAQ: IDCC) announced updated guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2014. The company now expects its total revenue to be in the range of $172 -$210 million, its recurring revenues to be between $72 and $80 million and past sales of $100 - $130 million. Shares of the company have rocketed up over 14 percent following the release.

Symbol: IDCC

Trailing PE: 38; Forward PE: 13

PEG: 4.29

Dividend: 1.10

Estimate Trend: Flat

Ransom Note Trendline: Buy IDCC

IDCC Chart

IDCC data by YCharts

Stock number two: Trinity Industries Inc.

Trinity Industries: The Mobile Pipeline--Seeking Alpha

Trinity Industries is an excellent long term play on the booming production of U.S. Shale Oil. Trinity is poised for robust long term growth from the inevitable build out and modernization of the U.S. rail car fleet to meet the growth in shale oil production.TRN has shown it is committed to an "all of the above" approach to increasing shareholder value, from the substantive recent 33% dividend increase to the psychological 2:1 stock split.

Symbol: TRN

Trailing PE: 12; Forward PE: 12

PEG: 1.16

Dividend: 0.50%

Estimate Trend: Up

Ransom Note Trendline: Buy Trinity

TRN Chart

TRN data by YCharts

Stock number three: Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General Backs Forecast, Expansion Despite Q1--Investors Business Daily

Dollar General (NYSE:DG) slightly missed first-quarter profit and sales forecasts, but the deep discounter rose in the stock market today as it reiterated full-year guidance and said its expansion plans are still on. Reporting before the open, Dollar General posted earnings of 72 cents a share for its fiscal first quarter, which ended in April. That was up from 71 cents the previous year but a penny below consensus views. The specialty discounter blamed severe winter weather and stiff competition.

Symbol: DG

Trailing PE: 18; Forward PE: 14

PEG: 1.09

Dividend: NA

Estimate Trend: Down

Ransom Note Trendline: Avoid Dollar General

DG Chart

DG data by YCharts

John Ransom - New Time 11:20 AM PT: Get the Market Movements in Advance: William's Edge Webinar for June 3rd, 2014
Posted: 6/3/2014 9:15:00 AM EST

Ransom Notes Radio Webinar
Join us for a Webinar on June 3rd, 11:20 AM PT
Space is limited.
Reserve your Webinar seat now at:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/227539472

Sign in above to watch as David Williams displays his live market charts showing recent trades and forecasts he has made on Ransom Notes! The audio will still stream through Ransom Notes broadcast and the charts will be viewable through GoToMeeting. By registering for this webinar you agree to receive email announcements and promotions periodically.

Click here to listen to Ransom Notes Radio live or for archives of previous shows.

After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.
System Requirements
PC-based attendees
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Mac®-based attendees
Required: Mac OS® X 10.6 or newer
Mobile attendees
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John Ransom - Intergovernmental Agency Funded by Governments Calls for More Money for Government
Posted: 6/3/2014 9:14:00 AM EST

A new report from the International Energy Agency warns that unless we give governments more money to "invest" in energy people could be sad.

Enormous amounts of capital investment — up to $2.5 trillion a year — will be needed to supply the world’s energy needs through 2035, according to a report released Monday by the International Energy Agency, the intergovernmental organization based in Paris.

A total of $40 trillion would go to developing and maintaining energy supplies, with $8 trillion more being spent on energy efficiency, the organization said in the report.

I wonder how we got along without the International Energy Agency helping us determine that we weren't giving government enough money to supply our energy needs?

They contend that the oil boom that's taking place worldwide in shale will be played out by the 2020s, and the OPEC nations will be back in control. This is newest refrain from liberals about fracking-- that the finds are too small to be sustainable-- since no one believes their global warming mantra, nor their assertions that fracking is responsible for earthquakes, tornadoes and the movie After Earth.

Yes, the scientists who didn't foresee the energy revolution going on in the USA warn that they are still right, even though they were wrong.

So please, please, please give them money before it's too late.

Michael Schaus - In Other News: Armed Robbers Ignore Another Restaurant's "No-Gun" Policy
Posted: 6/2/2014 4:58:00 PM EST

Here are some other highlights and headlines that I noticed over at Ransom Notes Radio:

The war on coal continues. Remember when President Obama said that his cap and trade restrictions would “necessarily” make energy prices skyrocket? Well… It’s nice to see he is keeping one of his campaign promises. (Fox Nation)

California marijuana producers are sucking the rivers dry, and polluting run-off water in their effort to produce the perfect weed. Given that the state is grappling with extreme drought conditions, some officials are sincerely concerned about the marijuana industry’s impact on farmers. Everyone else is too high to care. (The AP)

Sonic announced that it was going be the next restaurant to go “gun-free”. And then it was robbed. In the criminal’s defense, Sonic had likely not put up the “no-gun” signs by the time it was targeted by armed thugs… I’m sure that now since the signs are up, it will be clear sailing for the restaurant chain. (Breitbart)

A College fundraiser that involved coconut bras and grass skirts was deemed “racist” by school officials. It’s getting a little out of hand when you can’t have a luau without being called a racist. (I suppose we’ll be calling St Patrick’s Day racist next... Or do the Irish not count as a minority, because they're mostly white?) (Daily Caller)

John Ransom - Biotech Plays God: Biotech Gives, Biotech Takes Away
Posted: 6/2/2014 3:25:00 PM EST

Welcome to John Ransom’s Stocks in the News where the headlines meet the trendlines.

Click here to listen to Ransom Notes Radio live or for archives of previous shows.

Stock number one: Broadcom

Broadcom rises after plan to explore options for baseband unit—Fly on the Wall

Shares of Broadcom (BRCM), which provides semiconductor solutions for wired and wireless communications, are rising this morning after the company said it will explore strategic alternatives for its cellular baseband business. WHAT'S NEW: Broadcom said it will explore strategic options for its cellular baseband business, including a possible sale or wind-down, and has hired hired JPMorgan (JPM) to assist.

Symbol: BRCM

Trailing PE: 51; Forward PE: 13

PEG: 1.47

Dividend: 1.50

Estimate Trend: Flat

Ransom Note Trendline: Buy Broadcom

BRCM Chart

BRCM data by YCharts

Stock number two: American Realty Capital Healthcare Trust, Inc

Ventas buying ARC Capital Healthcare in $2.6B deal--Associated Press

Real estate investment trust Ventas is purchasing American Realty Capital Healthcare Trust Inc. in a cash-and-stock deal that the companies valued at about $2.6 billion.

The companies each own medical care offices as well as other real estate properties.

Ventas Inc. will pay $11.33 per ARC Healthcare share, a 14 percent premium to its Friday closing price of $9.95.

Symbol: HCT

Trailing PE: NA; Forward PE: NA

PEG: NA

Dividend: 6.80%

Estimate Trend: Flat

Ransom Note Trendline: Sell ARC Healthcare

VALE Chart

VALE data by YCharts

Stock number three: Puma Biotechnology, Inc.

Puma Biotechnology Shares Tumble +25%, Citi Remains Optimistic Despite 'Challenges -- Benzinga

In a report published Sunday, Citi analyst Yaron Werber warns investors of upcoming challenges for Puma Biotechnology (NYSE: PBYI) following the announcement that the phase 2 monotherapy cohort of [investigational drug PB272] … failed to meet its primary endpoint.

ASCO Meeting: PB272 Results

At the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 2014 Annual Meeting, Puma announced the “positive” phase 2 results of the company's investigational drug PB272 (neratinib) for the treatment of HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer that has metastasized to the brain. Despite the initial indications of activity, the company announced serious adverse effects from the drug.

Symbol: PBYI

Trailing PE: NA; Forward PE: NA

PEG: 0.81

Dividend: NA

Estimate Trend: Flat

Ransom Note Trendline: Avoid Puma Biotech

PBYI Chart

PBYI data by YCharts

John Ransom - Obama's Way and Means Committee for Russian Aggression
Posted: 6/2/2014 9:14:00 AM EST

Bloomberg News today reports that people inside of Vladimir Putin's inner circle are getting nervous about the economic costs of his territorial ambitions.

As the Russian president plots his next move on Ukraine, investors are giving his inner circle pause for thought. Since Putin annexed Crimea in March in the teeth of international outrage, Russian stocks have become the most volatile since 2009. Swings in the ruble against the euro are now the most extreme on record while expectations for fluctuations in the currency against its emerging-market peers are at the highest in two years.

The article points out that the Russian economy is on the verge of a recession, that the country is too dependent on natural resources for economic development, and that Putin is very, very sorry. Really.

“Putin very clearly got the signal that sanctions had sent,” Vadim Bit-Avragim, who helps oversee about $4.1 billion at Kapital Asset Management LLC in Moscow, said by phone last week. “He realized that it’s better not to aggravate the rest of the world and turn the country into a pariah and lead it to isolation. This won’t benefit him at all.”

Getting past the fact that I don't trust any capitalist who spells capital with a "K," I don't think that we should trust anybody interviewed over the telephone from Moscow.

Putin = KGB.

It wasn't too long ago that investment bankers were getting blown up in the cars are going down in the streets of Leningrad. Not coincidentally, Putin was first deputy mayor in Leningrad.

Prior to the outbreak of the Civil War in the United States, some theorized that the economic consequences would be too severe for the North to actually go to war. Prior to the outbreak of World War II, some theorized that the economic consequences of a war between Britain, Germany, France and Russia would be too severe for any of those countries to go to war with each other. Prior to the outbreak of World War II, some theorized that Hitler would realize the inordinate cost to Germany of this territorial ambitions.

Don't count on the stock market or capital flows to bail out the world for a lack of resolve.

Because make no mistake, it's largely a matter of Putin's resolve to do these things that's more important than anything else.

If he wants to go through with this, he will go through with it, and damn the economic consequences. They'll be short-lived anyways.

That's how dictators see it.

My suspicion is that stories like this from Blooomberg are mean to satisfy the people here at home that something is being done about Putin's aggression, when in fact Obama's acting as a Ways and Means committee for Russian aggression.

Michael Schaus - In Other News: Joe Biden (Still) Doesn't Get it...
Posted: 5/30/2014 4:00:00 PM EST

Here are some other highlights and headlines that I noticed over at Ransom Notes Radio:

Well… Shinseki fell on his sword over the VA Scandal. (Not literally… He would have had to wait too long to get treated.) So, Shinseki stepped down, Obama accepted his resignation, and Joe Biden is still asking why everyone is so worked up about veterinarians. (Fox News)

Obama told West Point grads that they wouldn’t be gearing up for a war with Russia, China, or radical Islam… Nope. They’ll be gearing up for a war against ManBearPig and “global warming”. Obama knows that his “war on coal” isn’t an actual shooting war, right? (Weasel Zippers)

The Orwellian named “Consumer Financial Protection Bureau” is putting together a database to track roughly 227 million social security numbers, credit histories, account balances, and banking information. I really hope they have the Obamacare folks help put this database together. There’s nothing quite as helpful as “one-stop-shopping” for identity thieves. (Washington Examiner)

Here’s a media report on some young (7-10 year old) shooting enthusiasts. Of course the article is a little apprehensive about young kids being taught about firearms… Oh, and (according to the article) it’s all about the NRA making more money. Apparently teaching kids to be safe with guns is just a profit scheme to the world’s largest gun safety organization. (ABC News)

Ezra Klein is an idiot:

Um… Does anyone still take Howard Dean seriously? I mean, I kid around about Joe Biden being an idiot (or being Super Retarded Dog’s politically active twin brother), but Howard Dean might be a bigger moron… Here is Joe Scarborough stumbling through a question – and Dean’s mind numbing answer:

The Best pull quote from the video: Obama’s foreign policy is too sophisticated for you morons in the Media. It’s too bad we can’t all see the brilliance in allowing Putin to annex Crimea; or the brilliance of arming Syrian Islamists while the Middle East collapses into chaos; or the brilliance of allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to take over Egypt, the Taliban to take over Libya, and the Iranians to get their hands on more nuclear technology… It’s a “sophistication” that is apparently beyond you “normal” folks.

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