Mike Shedlock
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s I watch the latest polls from Germany there are numerous outcomes, none of which will be pleasing to chancellor Angela Merkel, except outright victory by CDU/CSU +- FDP.

If anything but a CDU/CSU +- FDP majority happens, the chancellor will face seriously unwelcome choices.

For example: Reader Bernd pinged me with this comment yesterday "I just watched the last TV discussion. SPD has made it clear that EUROBONDS will be part and parcel of the package, if they come in with a coalition. Merkel was dead set against those up to now. Grand Coalition ??"

Indeed. Recall that Merkel is dead set against Eurobonds. Also recall eurobonds are against the German constitution.

And what is the price to pay for other coalitions?

Grand Coalition or Grand Fantasy?

A close friend continually points out: the German population wants a "Grand Coalition". And I agree with his assessment. But politically speaking, how stable would it be?

That is Merkel's concern, and that is why she is on a public campaign for voters to not split their votes.

But what if that is not good enough?

Latest Polls

Here are the latest polls.



As INSA reports things, there are numerous possibilities.

Give or take a mere 1-2% there are many possibilities.

  1. CDU/CSU + SPD (the "Grand Coalition")
  2. CDU/CSU + AFD
  3. CDU/CSU + FDP
  4. CDU/CSU + AFD +FDP
  5. SPD + GRUE + Die Linke


The only coalition that does not pose serious problems for Merkel is #3: CDU/CSU + FDP.

Mainstream Media Finally Catches On!

I have been talking about these issues since March. On September 19, CNBC finally reports Anti-euro party powers ahead as German elections near.

With just days to go until Germans head to the polls, the likelihood of Chancellor Angela Merkel retaining her crown grows ever larger. But Germany's establishment could still be in for a shock.

On Thursday, the anti-euro Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) hit the 5 percent threshold for the first time that parties need to gain a seat in parliament, according to an INSA poll. The poll suggested Merkel may not be able to re-form her center-right coalition with the liberal FDP.

The poll gave Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition 38 percent of the vote, while the FDP got 6 percent. Their combined 44 percent would not give them a majority in parliament.

If the AfD makes it into parliament and the current liberal coalition partners don't, the party could prove a headache for Merkel. She will be faced with tough talks to form a new "grand" coalition and would have to join forces with Steinbrueck's SPD.

The margin of error on these polls is +-3% and given the 5% threshold, that makes many of the polls useless.

But notice the trend. And the trend by media was to completely ignore the possibility that AfD would make it into parliament.

The secondary trend assumption was that a "Grand Coalition" was likely.

While a "Grand Coalition" is possible, it is not a given, just as I have stated. And if it does happen, it will not be stable, as demand after demand will be placed on Merkel.

Biggest Political Chameleon in History

Of course Merkel could be ready and willing to sell voters straight down the river. Otherwise, some major compromises are in store.

The above discussion assumes that Merkel is really against Eurobonds except as a matter of political expediency. Is she? Or will the biggest political chameleon in history change colors once again?

Barring an outright majority by CDU/CSU + FDP, we may soon find out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Mike Shedlock

Mike Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management.