Political  Calculations

Earlier this week, we wrote what was perhaps one of the most timely posts ever in the history of Political Calculations, as we discussed how we may have finally succeeded in compensating for the echo effect in our forecasting method for anticipating the future of the S&P 500:

Here's the result of our rebaselining the calculation to incorporate the historic stock data in our projections of today:
Rebaselined Alternative Future Trajectories for the S&P 500, 30 June 2014 through 30 September 2014, Snapshot on 25 July 2014

Suddenly, we find that stock prices would appear to be once again predictable, currently following the trajectories that are consistent with investors continuing to be focused on either 2014-Q3 or 2015-Q2 in setting current day stock prices - just as they were before we ran into the echo effect using our regular one-year ago base reference period!

But now, we appear to have reached a fork for that trajectory, where we'll soon determine which future investors are really focused upon.

That's become relevant again today because from all appearances, the S&P 500 followed Yogi Berra's advice about what to do when facing a fork in the road: it took it!


Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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