Political  Calculations

What's wrong with the economy in California?

We know. It's a long list. But we're specifically looking at the seasonally-adjusted trend in the state's weekly number of initial unemployment insurance benefit claims, which are filed whenever people are laid off from their jobs.

Let's start by updating the national picture for new jobless claims, where we find that the current trend has the number of layoffs in the U.S. falling by approximately 1,000 per month since 23 February 2012:

As you can see from the notations on the chart, we've recognized that California's Economic Development Department has been having an extreme amount of trouble in processing these unemployment benefit claims, especially since Labor Day weekend in 2013, which is why we've decided to dig deeper into the state's problems.

Next, let's look at the national picture for the seasonally adjusted number of new jobless claims each week again over the same period, but this time, let's omit California's data from the picture. Here's what we find:

Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, without California, 15 September 2012 - 21 December 2013

In this chart, we find that the entire rest of the nation is experiencing positive economic conditions, which if not for the drag of California's economy on the national economy, has the number of job layoffs and subsequent new jobless claims falling at an average rate of 2,600 per month.

So what's the current established trend for California's new jobless claims? Our third chart provides the answer to that question:

Residual Distribution for Seasonally-Adjusted Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, California Only, 15 September 2012 - 21 December 2013

Political Calculations

Political Calculations is a site that develops, applies and presents both established and cutting edge theory to the topics of investing, business and economics.

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