As we expected, economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 was revised upward twice before being finalized at the end of December 2012, rising from the originally reported annualized growth rate of 2.0% to 3.1% in the BEA's third (and final for now) estimate for that quarter.

We had forecast that real GDP would be recorded at $13,602.8 billion in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars, and the BEA's third estimate came in at $13,652.6 billion - a difference of $49.8 billion, or within 0.04% of the BEA's last recorded figure.

We've updated our forecast for where GDP in the fourth quarter of 2012 with that finalized data:

Real GDP vs Climbing Limo Forecast vs Modified Limo Forecast, 2004 - 2012Q3

Our inertia-based forecast is overly optimistic and we anticipate that real GDP in 2012-Q4 will be recorded at a level below the $13,726.5 billion in terms of inflation-adjusted, chained 2005 U.S. dollars shown in the chart above, thanks to the combination of our expected major slowdown in economic growth for the quarter and the negative impact of Hurricane Sandy.

We'll close by repeating our comments from 29 October 2012:

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Herb3 Wrote: Jan 21, 2013 7:53 AM
When this MOB only ran Chicago, they dictated to Ill. Dept.s of government what financial statements and budgets would show. After 4 years in DC, they manipulate figures on an ever grander scale. Just look at the financial condition of your family, your neighbors, and your community. Look at the vacant buildings, homes, and bank accounts. Look at the real inflation. Then try to tell us this Fed Govt is leading us to the promised land....the promised land of the Communists of the '60s that Organized behind someone like Obama. LONG LIVE BIG BROTHER......
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kenneth416 Wrote: Jan 21, 2013 4:27 AM
Does anyone think that the government (or, for that matter, anyone) can state with any degree of accuracy what the GDP is and by what amount it grew or shrank? I, for one, do NOT, and would be surprised if anyone could come within 1% of the correct number. There are simply too many variables, not least of which is the "underground economy" represented by the drug trade, prostitution,and other illegal endeavors. Then, there are the millions of people who derive a substantial part of their compensation from tips--think casino workers, waitres/waitressesses, bell hops, porters, skycaps, etc. So I would not be confident of any GDP numbers published by the government or by others.
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