Political  Calculations
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On 30 October 2012, a recession forecasting model developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger reached what appears to be a critical threshold for anticipating a recession in the U.S. in the very near future.

 

The Reformed Broker's Joshua Brown comments (HT: Abnormal Returns):

Do you see the percentages on the left side of the chart? 20% is the line in the sand. We've never hit that level and NOT had a recession. In 2006 we got close (18%?) but that particular Great Recession would be a year and half in the making. Note that we're back at that 20% line again. And I can't think of anything that keeps the leading indicators from going through it to the upside - the Fiscal Cliff stuff could only speed its ascent.

One thing we should note is that the data in the chart only covers the period through August 2012 - this is a delayed reaction to a developing situation. The probability of recession in the U.S. suddenly surged to the 20% level from the 2% level recorded a month earlier.

U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N) 30 October 2012

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